Nida Poll links southern unrest to budgets, grey capital and politics

Nida Poll, the opinion survey centre of the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), found that southern border residents linked recent unrest to local budgets, grey capital and politics, while shortcomings in policy topped concerns over why the incidents could not be prevented.

The survey, titled “What do people in the southern border provinces think about the latest unrest?”, was conducted between August 25 and 27, 2026, focusing on recent incidents in the three southern border provinces.

It surveyed 1,100 people aged 18 and over in Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala provinces, covering respondents across all levels of education, occupations and income groups.

When respondents were asked what they believed was behind the latest unrest, the findings were:

• 35.73% believed it was related to budgets allocated to the area.
• 30.36% believed grey-business networks, including those involved in drugs, smuggling and protection rackets, were unhappy with the government’s tougher crackdowns in recent months.
• 29.64% believed it was related to local politics.
• 27.64% believed the incidents were staged ahead of peace talks expected to begin soon.
• 26.27% believed separatist groups had joined forces with grey-business networks to create unrest.
• 20.27% believed separatist groups were unhappy with tougher government crackdowns in recent months.
• 19.55% believed groups behind the unrest wanted to create divisions within the area.
• 19.09% believed the unrest was related to national politics.
• 12.82% believed a younger generation of separatist activists had staged incidents to demonstrate their groups’ capabilities.
• 12.00% believed the incidents were related to a period of transfers and reshuffles of senior officials.
• 11.27% believed those behind the unrest may have allies among politicians who help distort information.
• 9.73% believed the incidents were staged to oppose economic development projects in the area.
• 6.36% believed groups behind the unrest wanted to assess the authorities’ response ahead of an upcoming military troop rotation.
• 5.45% believed the incidents were psychological operations intended to prompt public pressure on the authorities.
• 4.09% believed they were symbolic acts ahead of a mobile Cabinet meeting in Songkhla.
• 1.36% gave no answer or were not interested.

Respondents were also asked why the authorities had been unable to prevent the latest unrest in the three southern border provinces. The findings were:

• 40.82% pointed to shortcomings in policies, strategies and the overall direction for addressing problems in the three southern border provinces.
• 39.91% cited ineffective coordination among the agencies involved.
• 34.27% identified negligence by officials.
• 29.73% pointed to shortcomings in intelligence work.
• 29.36% believed those behind the unrest were dispersed across many areas, making incidents difficult to prevent.
• 18.82% believed law enforcement was overly conciliatory.
• 18.09% cited a lack of cooperation from the public.
• 11.55% believed state officials involved at various levels were not local people.
• 10.64% believed there were insufficient personnel in the area.
• 5.91% believed security personnel at local agencies did not have weapons for self-defence.
• 5.45% believed the three southern border provinces covered too large an area to be effectively protected.
• 0.45% gave other responses, including the view that state officials or government agencies may have been involved in, or aware of, the incidents because of possible shared interests.
• 0.36% gave no answer or were not interested.