Oil gains as Middle East conflict and tanker attacks lift Brent to US$105.48 a barrel on October 12
US crude rose to US$92.44 a barrel as Saudi airport strikes and two tanker attacks heightened concerns over Middle East oil supplies
- Brent crude oil prices rose to US$105.48 a barrel on October 12 due to heightened concerns over oil supply from the Middle East.
- The price increase was driven by an escalating conflict, specifically strikes by Iran-backed Houthis on Saudi Arabia's Riyadh airport.
- Attacks on two separate oil tankers over the weekend near Oman and in the Strait of Hormuz also contributed to market fears.
Oil prices extended gains on Monday (October 12, 2026) as the Middle East conflict escalated after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis stepped up strikes on Saudi Arabia while two tankers were attacked over the weekend, raising concerns about oil supply from the region. Brent crude futures rose 76 US cents, or 0.73%, to US$105.48 a barrel by 6.04am Thai time on October 12, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at US$92.44 a barrel, up 59 US cents, or 0.64%.
Houthis claim Riyadh airport strike that killed 13
Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for an October 10 strike on Riyadh’s international airport that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300. Saudi authorities reported injuries in another attack on the airport on October 11.
US President Donald Trump said on October 10 that the United States was considering joining Saudi strikes on the Houthis. The fighting is a spillover from the wider war against Iran launched by the United States and Israel in February.
Trump also announced unexpectedly on October 11 that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to an energy ceasefire. His announcement followed an October 9 announcement of a diesel supply deal with Russia.
Two tanker attacks threaten Middle East export recovery
A tanker was struck by a drone near Sohar anchorage in Oman, while another was damaged by an unidentified projectile as it passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported over the October 10–11 weekend.
Further attacks on tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz have been reported so far in October, threatening to undermine the recovery in Middle East crude exports seen in September.
Goldman Sachs raises December Brent forecast to US$90
Goldman Sachs increased its Brent crude price forecast for December to US$90 a barrel from US$85, according to a note from analysts led by Daan Struyven.
“We maintain our base case that continued adaptation of Mideast supply will eventually reduce crude oil prices, while potential renewed escalation still poses significant net upside risk,” the Goldman Sachs analysts said, estimating a risk premium of just over US$20 a barrel.
Goldman Sachs forecast WTI prices to average US$81 a barrel in December 2026 and US$73 in 2027. The bank’s analysts said high shipping costs between the United States and Europe were keeping WTI prices unusually low relative to Brent.
Gulf of Mexico producers prepare to restore output
Shell, Chevron and BP were preparing to redeploy personnel and restore production at their Gulf of Mexico platforms after Hurricane Isaias made landfall early on October 10.
