Thailand's floods to slightly affect int'l rice trade

 In a statement released today, the agency said that the trade volume next year could fall to 33.8 million tonnes, from 34.3 million forecast for this year.
 It noted that much of the shortfall in Thai deliveries is likely to be met by larger shipments from India. Australia, China, Pakistan and Viet Nam are also foreseen to raise exports next year, while Argentina, Brazil, Myanmar, the United States and Uruguay may witness a contraction.
 For this year, trade is forecasted to increase by about 1 million tonnes to 34.3 million tonnes (milled basis), 9 per cent more than in 2010 and an all time high. The rice trade expansion is fuelled by strong import demand from Asia (Bangladesh, China, Indonesia and Iran) and Africa (Cote d’Ivoire, Madagascar, Mali, Nigeria and Senegal). Supplies will come mainly from Thailand and India. Abundant supplies also enabled Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Myanmar, Uruguay and Viet Nam to boost deliveries, while China, Egypt, Pakistan and the United States curbed theirs.
 Between June and September, rice prices in most market segments increased, influenced by reports of floodrelated crop losses and, especially, by the announced high price policy in Thailand.  The FAO Rice Price Index passed from an average of 251 points in July to 260 in August and September before dropping to 255 in October.
On an annual basis, international quotations over January-October averaged 13 percent above its corresponding value in 2010.
Prospects for prices in the coming months remain highly uncertain, although they will be very much influenced by the unfolding of crops to be harvested in the second quarter next year. However, policy developments, especially in Thailand and India, will continue to weigh heavily on the market.
 Despite extensive floods in Asia since August, FAO has raised its July forecast of global paddy production in 2011 by 2.4 million tonnes to 721 million tonnes. The revision reflects expected improved rice harvests in Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India and Viet Nam which more than outweighed a worsening of prospects in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Madagascar, Myanmar, Pakistan, the Philippines and Thailand. At the current forecast of 721 million tonnes (481 million tonnes, milled basis), world paddy production would be 3 percent larger than in 2010 and breach last year’s record.
 Much of the growth mirrors progress in Asia, in spite of consecutive storms in the Philippines and severe inundations in Cambodia, Lao, Myanmar and Thailand, which marred crop prospects in those countries. The region is now anticipated to produce 651 million tonnes (435 million tonnes, milled basis), 3.0 percent above the already good 2010 outcome.