Thrills, but not as many spills

2012 should give us a break. By this, I mean troops shouldn’t go on a shooting spree and buildings shouldn’t be burnt. There can be other forms of turmoil, but after all we have been through, nothing should be unmanageable.

Let’s go into some details of what I think is potentially in store for this year:

1. THAKSIN WON'T COME BACK YET. This is not because Noppadol Pattama said so a couple of days ago, but because his return remains technically difficult. We have heard many theories of how he could come home without having to go to jail, but they all have loose ends.

Besides, another important question has to do with how Thaksin can get a pardon, or amnesty, or whatever they call it, without him looking like he “accepts” his guilt. Why is that crucial? It is, if his next goal is to legally fight for his seized money.

So, his supporters will have to figure out a way to bring him home not as a pardoned convict, but as a victim of political persecution who can lay legitimate claims to his seized assets. It’s a tricky situation. You can’t proclaim a victim without naming the victimiser. And naming the victimiser(s) entails not only legal complications, but also risks squashing the fragile hope for reconciliation.

2. YINGLUCK SHINAWATRA WILL SCRAPE THROUGH. If I’m right about the first one, I will be right about this one, too. But if her government refuses to heed warnings and launches an all-out bid to bring him home, there will be a new political crisis with unpredictable consequences.

My take is that Pheu Thai won’t risk it. It’s wiser for the government to rebuild after flood-induced setbacks and for Thaksin to wait at least another year for his sister’s sake. Opponents and the public will be teased with plans to bring him home but at the end of the day, Yingluck’s political survival will factor the most.

3. THE RETURN OF THE 111 BANNED POLITICIANS WILL CREATE RIPPLES, BUT NOT SHOCK WAVES. Only Chaturon Chaisaeng can represent a remote threat to Yingluck’s reign, but all he has is a decent image, which is not enough under current political circumstances. Most important of all, while he has been seen as a credible red-shirt mouthpiece, he has kept a distance from Thaksin, who in turn is never known to trust him with “big” agendas.

Chaturon’s red-shirt connections are likely to flourish. Some analysts even see him emerging as a true leader of the movement.

As for the other banned politicians, they will be more concerned about getting Cabinet posts than becoming MPs, so a House dissolution to welcome them back to the fold is very unlikely. A large-scale Cabinet reshuffle is to be expected, though.

4. CRACKS BETWEEN THAKSIN AND THE RED SHIRTS TIES WILL WIDEN. If the man in exile does not know already that he has created something that has grown beyond his control, it will be clearer to him this year. Giles Ungphakorn hardly represented anyone when he wrote recently from his England exile, lambasting the Yingluck government, but it could be the first glimpse of what the movement could evolve into when it becomes fully self-aware.

Whether it was for the right or wrong reason, Thaksin has turned a largely unorganised, impassive mass into a formidable political force, which may soon want more than he can provide. They may still clamour for his return to Thailand, but they won’t sit still either if he tries to strike a secret deal with those they deem “the elites” or believe are responsible for the “massacre” of protesters last year.

Since the chances of Thaksin’s return are strongly tied to the possibility of reconciliation, he may soon find that what stands between him and his home are those in red.

What can create friction is abundant. The “crackdown” on websites is one. Others include the push to change Article 112, a campaign that the government can’t be seen as supporting; the “failure” to help red-shirt members languishing behind bars; Yingluck Shinawatra’s continued attempts to pacify the military; the lack of Cabinet rewards for key red leaders and so on.

5. CHARTER AMENDMENT PROCESS WILL INCH ON. One way or another, the government will have to “keep the promise”. But whether the Constitution will be just partially changed, or rewritten all over again, and whether the job will be done by Parliament itself or an elected drafting committee, things will proceed very slowly. Controversial changes will be mooted and tension will rise, but we should be very surprised if a new charter is born this year.

Well, that should be it. I based my predictions on gut feelings that Pheu Thai will rather use 2012 to regroup and reinforce than go for broke. Thaksin will be careful not to provide his enemies with a new “pretext” simply because he can’t fail this time. Although patience is never his strong trait, he’s likely to give Thailand a reluctant break. Which is to say that 2012 will still have plenty of thrills, but won’t be a full-blown horrow show.