Flood measures stressed
Academics are concerned that any repetition of last year's severe flooding, notably the effect it had on key industries, would prompt foreign investors to move out of Thailand and set up new manufacturing bases elsewhere.
Panellists at a seminar held yesterday shared the view that it was crucial for the government to draw up a plan to prevent future flooding. In particular, flood-prevention measures are urgently needed for industrial estates located in high-risk areas.
The seminar, “The Lesson from the Flood Crisis – The Way to Reach Efficient Management”, was organised by the Thailand Management Association.
Boontham Rajitpinyolert, a lecturer at the Faculty of Economics at Thammasat University, said that if the government ignored the need for flood-prevention measures at high-risk industrial estates, even if future inundation were not as serious as last year, it would damage the confidence of foreign investors when deciding whether to continue operating in Thailand.
“If they decided to move out of Thailand, the loss would reach Bt1 trillion, particularly in the computer and computer parts businesses, as experienced in the flood crisis last year,” said Boontham, stressing that the government should in the near future draw up measures to ensure the safety of such operators.
He estimated that the overall economic damage from the Kingdom’s worst floods in 50 years would reach between Bt420 billion and Bt600 billion.
This compares with the National Economic and Social Development Board’s more conservative figure of Bt300 billion, while the World Bank has estimated a loss of Bt1.2 trillion.
Of the Bt420 billion estimated by Boontham, the loss from supply and demand accounts for Bt160 billion, a drop in investment for Bt140 trillion and lower exports for Bt120 billion, mainly in the electronic parts, computers and automobiles sectors.
However, some industries will experience gradual growth, such as foods, department stores, tourism and transportation. In addition, some sectors such as construction materials will have bright prospects in the first nine months of the year.
