Integrity required in climate-change mitigation plans

Last year the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat), as a member of the committee in charge of maintaining water levels at the big dams, was under pressure to release water stored at some dams following heavy rainfall. The government apparently feared that the rainwater could reach the level seen in 2011 just before much of Thailand was paralysed by one of the worst flood disasters in its history. 

Eventually last year the rain stopped sooner than expected, squeezing the accumulated rainwater by 5 per cent from the median level and 18.1 per cent down from the 2011 level.

As of March 1, big dams in the North that supply water for consumption in the North and the Central regions have held only 17.8 per cent of their capacity, against 40.1 per cent for the same period last year. The water level of dams in the Northeast is worse, at 13.1 per cent of capacity against 31.2 per cent for the same period last year.

To date, about 4 million rai has been affected by drought, 95 per cent of this being rice fields.  Starting last November, TMB Analytics forecast that the drought could extend to May, and that overall this year’s drought could be more severe than expected. Compared to 2005, when 13.7 million rai of agricultural land was affected, Thailand’s agricultural gross domestic product has shrunk by 2.7 per cent. If TMB is right, the situation could get much worse, in light of the low water reserves at the big dams.

Policy-makers cannot adopt a business-as-usual approach, because the frequency of flood and drought is heightened by climate change and is affecting the quality of life of millions of people. Aside from the loss of agricultural produce, many rural people are left without money for daily survival. Tax money is being disbursed to ease their troubles, but a chunk of it is being snatched away by heartless vultures.  

Thanks to technological advancements, Thailand could do better in reducing the negative consequences of extreme weather and natural disasters. The Bt350-billion water-management master plan should provide some assurance, but the government could find difficulties in implementing the plan, given public doubt. 

Doubt emerged when the committee in charge of the plan decided to reduce the number of development modules from 10 to 9 after the qualification process was completed. Then questions flew following the Japan International Cooperative Agency’s claim that the government could actually save more than 60 per cent of the allocated sum. The Japanese agency, which has completed a separate water-management master plan for Thailand, said some of the proposed modules are unnecessary and are not planned in an integrated manner.

Over the next decade Thailand will require huge amounts of money just for climate-change mitigation alone. More investment is required for embankments in key coastal cities, including Bangkok, if scientists’ forecast of higher sea levels becomes fact. The standards for, and quality of, some construction materials will need to be improved, particularly for those provinces that are at risk of heavy storms, since the government cannot always afford subsidies for replacement materials. Importantly, money and commitment are required if Thailand wants to show the global community it can reduce carbon emissions. Aside from raising public awareness, the tax structure must be changed if we are to properly promote fuel-efficient vehicles instead of gas-guzzling pickup trucks and four-wheel drives. All energy subsidies must also be erased. 

All of these efforts must be carried out in a coordinated and transparent manner if the government is serious about flood prevention and mitigation of natural disasters. There must also be integrity in ensuring no corruption. Climate change is affecting all sectors of society. Thus everyone must support well-thought-out and transparent plans that can reduce the various negative effects it will bring.