Danger of Thai denial on security threats

“Thailand is friendly to all countries, nobody will harm us” still reigns in the heads of Thai security apparatus. Even in the age of new global security’s structures, Thailand still thinks it is immune of any possible danger due to its unique history and independence.

The case in point was the recent YouTube clip showing three alleged Al-Queda members holding a photo of Thaksin Shinawatra, threatening to kill him. The government and Pheu Thai party played down the plot immediately, describing it as fake. Nobody bothered to investigate further who were these hooded men and what were their ulterior motives, except the US intelligent community.

The Central Intelligent Agency asked the Thai counterparts to dig deeper as it is interested in any form of threat, real or imagine, coming from popular borderless social platforms. Any lead would be useful for the anti-terrorism campaign. The clip represented a new twist in the conflict in southern provinces as it has now become more personalized. His name was mentioned for the first time. Persons who know what Thaksin did at Takbai in October 2005 and its far-reaching ramifications would not take any threat against Thaksin lightly, especially the alleged plot was linked to Al-Queda group. Thaksin has kept quiet on his own fate – uncharacteristic of him not to comment routinely. For a record, he even admitted the leaked conversations with Gen Yuttasak Sasiprapa took place while the latter denied it.

With a long history of ignoring external threats, many of their investigations blogged down as they were not aimed at Thai citizens. Today, terrorists, including those identified by the US, can still use Thailand as a transit point or for R&R as they would soon leave the country, so goes the wisdom. Besides pledging to closely watch them, nobody wants to take any action. Doubtless, the post Sept 11 world, this country remains a haven for extremists. Lest we forgot parts of the Sept 11 attacks and several terrorist attacks abroad were planned over here by the Al-Queda network and its regional affiliate, Jamiah Islamiah.

That was why Thailand was indifferent with the recent US security alerts to close down selective US diplomatic missions in the Middle East and North Africa due to the Al-Queda threats. Ironically, the warning also coincided with the broadcast of YouTube on Thaksin’s killing. Other countries in the region such as Singapore, Indonesia and Cambodia were on high alerts. Indeed, these countries have well connected and coordinated anti-terrorism networks in terms of intelligent sharing, especially suspected terrorists who frequent the region.

Thailand’s security linkages including data gathering and intelligence sharing are still not completely hooked into the US-led information system which is active at the global level. These Asean countries are well ahead as their security apparatus are more adept and alerted to the external threats than the Thais. For instance, Cambodia and the US have online and real-time update on lists of terrorists and other intelligence, which Thailand, as a close US ally, does not have.

From 2003-2006 under Thaksin’s administration, Thailand cooperated closely with the US in the anti-terrorism campaigns including black prisons and other secret activities. But these were was based on arrangements at the highest level and an ad hoc basis. The arrest of Hambali, the Asian head of Al-Queda in Ayutthaya in August 2003, was one of the highlights. The US intelligence and huge reward contributed to the successful mission. These collaborations have already made Thailand a prime target of terrorists, the Al-Queda group in particular.

This government thinks the country’s biggest security threat comes from within. That helps to explain why the peace talks in the South goes nowhere. The Thai security team simply look at internal dynamics of security threats while the insurgent groups follow well-conceived of interconnectedness between internal and external threats.

Therefore, the whole security apparatus has been zeroed in on contained domestic forces hostile to the government in the past weeks. For the foreign terrorists, under this circumstance, Thailand is still the weakest link in the tight network of counter-terrorism. Unless, tangible preventive measures are taken up promptly, the Thai leaders would have no way to foil any terrorist attack, small or big, in the future.