THURSDAY, March 28, 2024
nationthailand

Brace for a new round of confrontation

Brace for a new round of confrontation

Thailand is once again at a crossroads. The political crisis is escalating over the Phue Thai Party's attempt to bring back former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra under the camouflage of amnesty legislation. The ghost of Thaksin still haunts Thailand. T

The Democrats have decided to take it to the streets, forming a grand alliance with anti-government protesters. They know that they will not be able to block the amnesty bill in Parliament because of Pheu Thai’s outright majority. The bill is now proceeding through a second reading in Parliament. 
A vote is scheduled for Saturday. Suthep Thuagsuban, the secretary-general of the Democrat Party, has led the charge, organising an anti-amnesty bill protest in the Samsen area, which is a stone’s throw away from the Democrat Party’s headquarters. Ironically, he and former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva will benefit from the amnesty bill if it is passed. But the stakes are higher than that. If Thaksin were allowed to come back, he would certainly reclaim his premiership.
Tents and facilities have been installed at the opposition’s rally site. The crowd surged to 8,000 by late afternoon yesterday in anticipation of the main protest, which would kick off in the evening. Over the next three days, the rally is expected to attract 50,000 anti-government protesters. Five leading Democrats – Korn Chatikavanij, Thaworn Senneam, Issara Somchai, Siriwan Prassachaksattru and Satit Wongnongtaey – have resigned their positions on the party’s executive board, but still keep their MP posts. 
The Democrats have coordinated their alliances, including with former People’s Alliance for Democracy leaders Chamlong Srimuang, Somkiat Pongpaiboon and Panthep Pourpongpan, and the Green Group’s Suriyasai Katasila. 
Opposition against the amnesty bill is also growing within the red-shirt movement. The move is being loudly opposed by some activists, academics and lese majeste detainees who are part of the red-shirt camp. 
The Peacekeeping Operations Centre has concluded that the anti-amnesty rally at Samsen train station will last a long time, police spokesman Major General Piya Uthayo said on Thursday. That is a fair assessment because the protesters will also be anticipating the International Court of Justice’s verdict on the Preah Vihear Temple dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. Thailand will at best gain a draw or at worst suffer a loss in this case, while Cambodia will at best enjoy a triumph or at worst a draw. A draw would result if the court decides that it has no jurisdiction to rule on the case any further (following a ruling in 1962), so that both parties should continue to negotiate for settlement on the territorial conflict surrounding the temple. This case also has implications on both countries’ territorial rights in the Gulf of Thailand, where oil reserves are abundant.
Both the amnesty bill and the Preah Vihear case are politically explosive. They could make or break the stability of this country and the region. If Pheu Thai insists on bringing Thaksin back via the amnesty bill, the chances of confrontation are high or inevitable. If Thailand were to lose the Preah Vihear case, the chances of a clash with the Cambodias is also high or inevitable. We are moving fast to the point of no return.
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