FRIDAY, March 29, 2024
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Be ready, when India engages the world

Be ready, when India engages the world

India has finally emerged from its huge continent, judging from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's numerous postures and comments during his five-day visit to Japan recently.

There will be more to come next month when he attends a series of summits with the leaders from Asia and the Pacific in Beijing, Nay Pyi Taw and Brisbane. For the time being, the media over here has played up both his personal diplomacy and style – comparing them to previous Indian leaders since independence – which was considered rather unusual in the Indian context.
What would be the implications for the region and beyond with a pro-active and rising India? Can India really live up to such high expectations given its mammoth domestic problems? From discussions with Indian diplomats and academics, the answers are clear to me. If India can score just above 50 per cent of planned strategies and policies, the world’s largest democracy will have a stronger economy and wield political clout that could rival China in the near future.
The past 100 days, Modi has shown to his own people that India has such enormous potential. He has already brought his ethos and working styles to the capital, making sure that things get done on time – no procrastination. For instance, he said India must lay down “red carpets” instead of “red tapes” for foreign investors. It has immediately become a new buzzword back home.
During his trip to Japan, Modi offered a gleam of India’s diplomacy in years to come – his strong preference for connectivity with Asia is highly visible. His comment on the positive role of India-Japan friendship that would shape the 21st century was well received here and abroad. But soon it must be weighed against what he would say when Chinese President Xi Jinping visits India later this month.
Certainly, India is big enough for both China and Japan to engage. It remains to be seen however how Modi will calibrate the balance toward these two Asian giants to ensure the so-called “win-win-win” situation. At this juncture, India needs assistance from Beijing and Tokyo in infrastructural development and direct investment. China has developed expertise in port facilities and industrial parks, which India’s western states need.
Japan has a special place in Modi’s India with multi-fold roles to boost India’s development and economic power. Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan-India friendship has deepened in terms of strategic interests and cooperation. With a huge US$34.5 billion investment package and other long-term commitments, Japan hopes an India that is democratic and economically strong would be a reliable strategic counterpart – an additional security guarantor – in the next decade or two. 
The third win has to do with evolving India-US relations which are improving with Modi’s upcoming visit to the US. He will put aside his visa scandal and move on to strengthen ties with the US in ways that would support India’s rise on the global stage. The peaceful use of nuclear deals with the US has already opened ways for India to widen its cooperation in this field with other countries such as Japan and Australia.
From the regional perspective, India’s active diplomatic engagement is applauded. For decades, since the pronouncement of a “Look East Policy” in 1992, there has been more rhetoric than action. Even Indian Foreign Minister Shusma Sivaraj was candid in saying  her country would now need an “Act East Policy”.
To be fair, India has made much progress in its cooperation with the region. Take the India-Asean relations, after decades of little contact in the 1980’s their relations have now blossomed into a close economic and political strategic partnership. Recently, they have signed trade in services and investment agreements that would further boost bilateral trade – the two-way trade volume could reach the US$100 billion benchmark next year. But unfortunately, the Philippines did not sign. More five-year strategic action plans are in the offing.
Compared to the India-Asean ties, the China-Asean ties, which began cooperation with Asean roughly at the same time, have made more progress. Both acceded to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in 2003 which helped raise their profiles in Asean’s schemes of things. Only China has taken advantage and intensified relations with Asean with 42 various committees covering the whole gamut of collaboration. India has only 26 committees.
Indeed, Modi’s personal diplomacy has scored high marks. But at the working level New Delhi behaved differently. Indian Commerce Minister Nirmala Sintharaman did not show up at the recent key meetings (Asia Europe Meeting-India Consultation, East Asia Summit Economic Ministers Meeting, the Regional Comprehen-sive Economic Partnership Ministerial Meeting) in Nay Pyi Taw, which deeply disappointed Asean.
Asean economic ministers also expressed deep concern over the impasse of the adoption of a World Trade Organisation deal agreed in Bali in July that was to streamline global customs procedures. India was the only WTO country that blocked the deal citing the much needed food security.
India’s move sent a big chill through Asean, which is negotiating with dialogue partners – China, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia – to complete the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partner-ship. Now the prospect of concluding the RCEP in 2015 is doubtful.
At the latest round of RCEP negotiations in Singapore, India’s position on the modality of negotiating on goods, services and investment remained a bone of contention. To move ahead, Asean and dialogue members started to discuss about the “minus-x” formula, which will allow any member including India to stay out of the scheme for the time being, if it is not ready. The upcoming RCEP meeting will be held in India in December when the host is expected to do better.
If India stays out this way, it will hurt Modi’s much hyped Asia-oriented approach. The country’s economic integration with Asean and wider East Asia will also falter, which would inevitably have negative impacts on India’s overall strategic interests.
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