Judgement day arrives for Anwar Ibrahim

Anwar Ibrahim has reached another critical moment in his career, with Malaysia’s top court set to rule today on the opposition leader’s final appeal against a conviction for sodomy. But there is a different mood in his party this time around.

The last few months have not been good to Anwar. His reputation is at its lowest ebb in years, ruined by the so-called Kajang Move – an attempt to take control of the Selangor state government that ended in fiasco. A strategy his advisers thought would propel him to national government instead sent him crashing down.

This prime minister aspirant once walked on water but his aura has been dented and the signs were all there during his road show last week – a rather passive atmosphere and a crowd of barely 1,500.

It was a muted start to his “Rakyat Hakim Negara” campaign, a clarion call for the people to be the judge in this final stage of his sodomy trial, rather than the courts. 

One year ago, at the height of his popularity, he would have urged the crowd to come out to protest and they would have done so. But he can sense the change and, this time, he asked for their prayers.

A news portal described the appearance as Anwar’s “farewell speech”.

Many in his People’s Justice Party (PKR) are braced for the worst-case scenario – they think Anwar will be found guilty rather than innocent. They have always maintained that this is a political trial aimed at stopping the PKR and depriving the party of its chosen prime ministerial candidate.

The stakes are very high this time. If Anwar is found guilty today, his political life ends here and now.

“There is no one with his skills to hold the three political animals (PKR and its coalition partners the DAP and PAS) in one cage. Whether you like him or not, there is only one Anwar. No one can replace him,” said one observer, a Malaysian lawyer.

PKR leaders have organised a protest rally at the Palace of Justice where the federal judges will rule on the case today.

The new PKR Youth chief, Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, is under pressure to pull off a big rally but is said to be struggling because the party is badly divided. When Nik Nazmi called a press conference to announce the rally, only two Youth leaders turned up alongside him.

The internal split was further aggravated when 90 per cent of the appointed party posts were given to those aligned to Kajang Move architect Rafizi Ramli.

The onus is now on Nik Nazmi and Rafizi, who is the new secretary-general, to mobilise a mammoth crowd to show everyone that Anwar is still loved and needed. This is their first major assignment and all eyes are going to be on whether they can bring the party out today.

 

Waning support

But supporters of former Selangor chief executive Khalid Ibrahim will not be turning out in big numbers. They are still bitter about the way their man was pushed off the stage.

Neither will all of Azmin Ali’s supporters come out in full force. They are still fed up at the way the group around the powerful Anwar family tried to undermine Azmin during the party polls and how they tried to block his ascent to the post of Selangor chief.

“People are still nursing their wounds. It is not easy to forget the election – flying chairs, people punching each other. It has affected the mood, said KPR division chief Khairul Anuar Ahmad Zainudin Khairul.

The fact is that the centre of gravity in PKR has started to shift to Azmin. Many in the party can see that he has what it takes for the complex job of Mentri Besar, or state chief executive.

The transition from Khalid to Azmin has been smoother than many had dared hope. Azmin has shown leadership and ability, and that has helped the opposition coalition pull back from the brink of political crisis.

Many people feel let down by Anwar, especially the intelligentsia. His Kajang Move was a tipping point for the thinking class.

They had put so much hope on him but he fluffed it. First, he made a sitting assemblyman resign so that he could contest a by-election. Then he put his wife up as candidate. Next, he pushed down a sitting Mentri Besar in an effort to put his wife in charge.

Yet there is still a lot of sympathy for Anwar and his family.

“It is not that people wish him ill but I don’t see them pouring into the streets again,” said Rita Sim of Malaysia’s CENSE think tank.

The Arab Spring inspired many Malaysian opposition supporters but the outcome has left a bad taste in their mouth. The Egypt protests brought down an unpopular dictator but resulted in unrest and instability and the void has been filled by another strongman. Likewise, the Hong Kong protests have drawn mixed reaction from Chinese Malaysians.

The reality is that the average Malaysian is currently more concerned about “rice-bowl” issues than politics.

Past support for Anwar from the ulama – Muslim clerics – seems to have disappeared. They are now more concerned about issues like petting dogs and beer guzzling.

Still, it is the impending verdict that will decide whether Anwar still has a future in Malaysian politics. The world will be watching to see the outcome.