Ceasefire unlikely on Union Day without further talks

Both sides said at a press conference after a ceasefire coordination meeting in December that they expected to sign a ceasefire on February 12. President Thein Sein reiterated the point during a meeting with the leaders of the ethnic armed groups on January 5, who attended the Independence Day anniversary and the grand military parade, said Colonel Khun Oakka, a NCCT member. 

Representatives from both parties said they needed to agree on the provisions of the ceasefire draft. They added that it would take about two weeks to make preparations, including inviting witnesses from several countries, in order to sign the agreement.

Khun Oakka also said that to be able to sign a ceasefire, conflicting points in the ceasefire draft must be settled while it was necessary to avoid further military operations. 

Tensions in Kachin, where a 17-year ceasefire between rebels and the government splintered in 2011, have overshadowed efforts to call an end to the multiple civil wars in Myanmar's ethnic minority borderlands that have blighted the country for more than half a century. Reaching a nationwide ceasefire deal with some 16 rebel groups is seen as a cornerstone of reforms by Myanmar's quasi-civilian government, which replaced outright junta rule in 2011.

In an interview with Singapore's Channel News Asia on Monday, Myanmar's army chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said peace in the war-ravaged nation is in the hands of ethnic rebels.

"Do they really want peace? If they really want peace, there is no reason that they cannot have it," he said, referring to the country's many ethnic minority armed groups who have fought for greater autonomy for decades. 

"We cannot keep disagreeing. Disagreeing hinders the country's development," added the army chief, whose troops have engaged in sporadic heavy fighting with rebels from the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), despite ongoing efforts to reach a nationwide ceasefire.

After December’s meeting, the UPWC and NCCT issued a joint statement saying that the seventh ceasefire coordination meeting would take place, but that now looks unlikely.

Pado Saw Kwe Htoo Win, deputy leader of the NCCT, said the ceasefire meeting could be arranged in mid-January if no clashes occurred between the government and ethnic groups. 

However, clashes broke out with the Kachin Independence Army in the townships of Kutkhai and Tamoenye, northern Shan State, on January 13 and 14. Clashes also occurred in Phakant, Kachin State, on January 15. 

Observers say both parties’ failure to stop unnecessary clashes during the ceasefire discussions have formed a barrier to further talks. 

In the ceasefire draft only a few points remain to be agreed. The points reportedly include which armed groups will sign the ceasefire accord, the number foreign witnesses who will be invited, military discipline, the ethics to be followed by both sides and ceasefire monitoring. 

The NCCT, which is formed by ethnic armed groups, plans to hold a meeting in Chiang Mai, Thailand, between January 19 and 21 to set the date for the seventh round of ceasefire talks. 

Officials from Myanmar Peace Centre also plan to meet NCCT leaders around January 20. 

The ceasefire agreement has been in public focus, including 25 youth organisations.

They demanded participation at the next peace talks while meeting with Union ministers Aung Min and Soe Thein, officials of the Myanmar Peace Centre (MPC) and more than 90 representatives from in Yangon to discuss the role of young people in the peace process. 

Aung Min, the vice-chairman of the Union Peacemaking Work Committee (UPWC), said that he would hold discussions with the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) on whether to allow two youth representatives to observe the peace talks.

Aung Min said: “The youth groups can choose two young people. After that I will discuss it with the NCCT.” 

The youth delegates also demanded that military representatives from the UPWC be allowed in the next meetings with the UPWC. Aung Min replied that he would try to arrange it.