Pledge for peace: first move towards ceasefire

 

There were 13 clashes from February 9 to 12 in Shan State, killing five officers and 42 soldiers, and wounding 11 officers and 62 soldiers, according to the state-owned Global New Light of Myanmar.

Signing the deal on February 12 when the country celebrated the 68th Union Day were President Thein Sein and the Karen National Union (KNU), Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), Karen National Liberation Army and Shan State Restoration Council/Shan State Army. The other nine groups attending the meeting promised to consider the pledge.

Both parties pledged to work toward the enactment of the historic Panglong Agreement of 1947, which endorsed sovereignty of ethnic groups. Political talks, to take place before the election, would follow to reach a nationawide ceasefire treaty. The signatories also agreed to refrain from armed skirmishes other actions that could damage the peace process.

“The trust is built among higher ranks. But we need time to build trust between middle and lower ranks. Although the higher rank said not to fight, the fighting is still occurring as no mutual trust has been established in middle and lower ranks," President Thein Sein said. 

KNU General Secretary Saw Kual Htoo said conflicts would be solved through a political dialogue. “If they break the promise, the fighting will break out again.”

National League for Democracy also issued a statement, urging all to respect and value the Panglong Agreement signed by General Aung San and 23 ethnic leaders.

 “The Panglong Agreement reflected the toleration of Bogyoke Aung San and ethnic leaders, diligence, unity, historical cultural characters of the ethnics and ideology. The Panglong Agreement is a symbol of freedom, equality and justice,” it said.

Doubts remain, though. 

The pledge was reached though President Thein Sein originally wanted to reach a much-coveted nationwide ceasefire accord on the day. 

This raises the issue of whether the critical peace process, which has stumbled mostly on the issue of trust, can sustain any momentum in an election year loaded with the risk of turmoil.

The government hopes it will.

A source told The Straits Times: "No one was against it. Those who could not sign, did not sign because they did not have the mandate. Now they can go back and talk to their colleagues to see if they will sign."

The document commits those who signed it, including 54 political parties, to "building a Union based on democratic and federal principles".

It promises to "conclude the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement without delay while recognising that a nationwide ceasefire is vital for the political dialogue process".

 They also pledged to establish "a new political culture of ending long-existing armed conflicts and solving grievances through dialogue instead of resorting to force of arms" and to "promptly hold an all-inclusive political dialogue process".

But leading up to a watershed election near the end of this year, Thein Sein has even more on his plate, including a referendum in May on whether to open up the Constitution for amendments. 

Yangon-based analyst Richard Horsey, a former top UN official in Myanmar, wrote in an e-mail: "A presidential commitment to federal union is highly significant, and could be important in the medium term - but will probably not solve the trust deficit in the short term.

"The bigger question is if and when a nationwide ceasefire will be signed. This looks increasingly unlikely. That does not mean the end of the peace process but, with elections looming, the space for making any further progress is closing fast."