Post-Thingyan challenges

After emerging from 49 years of military rule in 2011, the quasi-civilian government has carried out a series democratic reforms. However, concern is growing that the reform programme is stalling or even sliding backward, in light of ongoing fighting with some armed ethnic groups as well as the growing number of political prisoners.

Among the main critics of the government is Aung San Suu Kyi, chairperson of National League for Democracy (NLD). In Bangkok in 2012 – her first overseas trip after her 18 yearsunder house arrest, she urged “cautious optimism” about Myanmar’s reform pace. In the past months, she has said the reform programme is “stalling, following the government’s and the military’s refusal to put through proposed amendments to the 2008 constitution, despite the NLD’s success in drawing nearly 5 million signatures from supporters.” Without changes, the constitution assures the military’sdominance in the legislative branch and bars Suu Kyi from running for the presidency, even though the country promises democratic elections later this year.

The latest blow came in the first week of this month when Suu Kyi told Reuters in an interview that boycotting the upcoming election was “an option” if the constitution remains unchanged. She also said the abundance of praise from international community for the reform process has made the Thein Sein government complacent and allowed it to backslide on promised reforms. 

"We don't think boycotting the election is the best choice," said Suu Kyi, when asked whether her party would run with the constitution unchanged. "But we're not ruling it out altogether. We are leaving our options open."

The NLD won Myanmar's last real national election in 1990 by a landslide, but the military nullified the results. The party boycotted the 2010 election, which was widely regarded as rigged and installed Thein Sein, a former general and junta stalwart, as president.

Thein Sein urgently called for a meeting with Suu Kyi and other influential figures on April 8. At that meeting, Suu Kyi said she refused to rule out a boycott of the elections.

"We are not closing off any options. No one can know what will happen, so we have to calculate for every possibility," she told reporters. 

Suu Kyi said the NLD has proposed a gradual reduction in military lawmakers but added, “If we are going to accept the presence of military representatives in the legislature forever, that's not democracy."

Two days later, with short notice, the long-awaited six-party talk took place, involving the president, House Speaker, the Speaker of the House of Nationalities, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services, Suu Kyi and Aye Maung, who represented all ethnic minority groups.

The two meetings were crucial, indicating that the military could not afford to ignore her demands.

In an article in the Guardian, veteran foreign affairs correspondent Martin Woollacott described Suu Kyi as the country’s ‘most prized asset’. 

Though Myanmar is becoming more prosperous, more ‘modern’, all this is happening in the absence of a true political settlement. In this circumstance, Suu Kyi needs to persuade the generals that they cannot stay in a halfway house between military and civilian rule forever, while facing the fact that the military and its allies embarked on the reform campaign to preserve their position, not to discard it.

“Daw Suu has her critics, and not only among ex-generals. The answer to them is surely that nobody else in Burma has the combination of integrity, historical sense, and wisdom she possesses. It would be a perverse nation which wasted that asset,” he said.

In addition to the election, the nationwide ceasefire accord was another issue discussed at the recent high-level meetings. Though all 16 armed ethnic groups under the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) agreed to the draft, it remains uncertain whether this could be signed in May, as expected. The minority groups’ leaders plan a meeting sometime this month or early May to discuss the draft. This will be the fourth meeting of its kind, following the first one in Laiza in October 2013, the second in Law Khee Lar in July 2014 and the third in Laiza late last year. 

At this juncture, criticism ofthe Myanmar government’s violations of human rights are intensifying.

According to Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, at the end of February there were 170 political prisoners in the country, with 238 activists currently awaiting trial for political activities. In February, 5 political activists were arrested, 42 were charged and 18 were sentenced. There were no political prisoners released this month. 

“The government continues to silence its critics through the use of several laws aimed at preventing activists from exercising their right to freedom of expression,” AAPP said in its most recent report.

These numbersare expected to increase in the March review due later this month, following the arrests and sentences of students and activists involved in the protest against the National Education Law as well as those organising unauthorised protests against other issues. A total of 127 people were arrested during thecrackdown on the student protest in Letpadan on March 10. Seventy of them remain in jail.

A time bomb is ticking in Myanmar. Much will have to change in the country before the 2015 election to prevent its detonation.