Politics taking on a LIFE OF ITS OWN

For the first time, the military junta and the Cabinet it installed officially discussed a possible stand on the draft of Thailand’s new charter. Signs of approval or disapproval, it is believed, will signal how soon the next election can take place – or, in other words, how much longer the country will remain under military rule. 

What has come out fails to indicate what the future holds. The junta agreed to a public referendum on the controversial charter draft, but that means anything can happen. The country has splintered into people who support the draft no matter what, those who support it selectively, those who are opposed to it no matter what, and those who are opposed to it selectively. Some observers believe the referendum could make the Scottish independence vote look like a high-school election.

Yingluck’s court appearance settled just one question but did not give us any strong hints of what will happen next. She’s not running away, for now, but as some senior Pheu Thai members have said, nobody can tell what the future will bring. The Supreme Court ordered her to stay in Thailand and attend every hearing, but if she really wants to run at some point, nothing can stop her. Will she be found guilty? Will she bolt before the verdict? Will she seek political asylum abroad? Which country would offer her sanctuary if she’s found guilty by the court?

It’s too early to dwell on those questions, the Pheu Thai big guns say. At least, that’s what they say in public. In private, a lot of people must be working overtime on the worst-case scenario. The military government must also be preoccupied with the Yingluck case. A guilty verdict would galvanise a lot of people whereas an acquittal would render her impeachment by the interim legislature laughable and the coup next to ridiculous.

Some predict that Yingluck will be found guilty but will be allowed to flee. That would solve many problems. But what if she decides not to run? What if she says “Put me in jail if |you dare”? That’s not a far-fetched scenario, scary as it seems.

Meanwhile in Seoul, Thaksin called for good governance of entrepreneurial technology based businesses to boost Thais’ quality of life. The speech in South Korea was closely watched, but his decision to give it was equally significant: what Thaksin says and what Thaksin does must be analysed together.

And like all other parties in the political conflict, Thaksin has to step carefully. Some speculate that he’s playing it cool, waiting for the junta to shoot itself in the foot. But that strategy would require him to lie low and avoid igniting the resentment against him that already smoulders in one half of Thailand. So far, Thaksin’s rating in that half of the country hasn’t improved, regardless of how interim Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is doing in the popularity polls.

Yesterday didn’t throw much light on Thailand’s future. Prayut, Thaksin and Yingluck haven’t revealed half of their cards. And even if they did lay everything on the table, the days of any one individual being in full control of the situation have long gone. We are past the point where someone can say, “Let’s have a truce” or “Let there be another war”, and then expect things to unfold as he or she wishes.

What happened yesterday may have short-term impacts. But in the big picture, the stalemate still looms large. It matters little if the junta likes this charter draft or not, or if Yingluck runs or stays, or if Thaksin manages to hold his tongue. The three were in their particular spots yesterday because the Thai political divide put them there, and it’s wishful thinking to believe they might be able to do anything to reverse the tide.