Myanmar secures ceasefire with rebels, but peace still a long way off

Myanmar signed a ceasefire with eight major rebel groups Thursday, the biggest deal in four years of negotiations, but the impact on the overall peace process remains unclear.

The government, signatories and observers welcomed the deal, saying atruce was necessary to move to the political discussions that must in turn precede any lasting peace in the country.

But others point out that the deal only covers a minority of the 21armed ethnic groups who have been fighting the government and sometimes each other for more than 60 years.

Six militias still fighting in the eastern Shan State were excluded from talks by the government, which said they had to lay down arms first. Another seven refused to sign on Thursday in protest at the exclusion.

"Although we didn't sign it, we agree with the text," said La Nan, spokesman for the Kachin Independent Army, active in the far north. "We just want an all-inclusive truce, not one like that."

He also dismissed news reports that China pushed them not to sign.

Kachin State is on the border with China, where a leader of the Kokang rebel group was in exile until returning earlier this year and launching attacks on government troops. An army shell launched in the skirmish killed four villagers on the Chinese side of the border.

"It is not true that we didn't sign it because of some Chinese officials," he said. "The remaining groups including ours willcontinue the negotiations with government."

Another group that did not sign was the United Wa State Army, considered one of the largest and most effective.

But Thant Myint Oo, historian and founder of Yangon Beritage Trust, said it was "very clear there is no way for peace without a ceasefire."

"This signing paves the way for further steps to end Myanmar's conflict, the longest civil war in the world."

The ethnic groups have been fighting since independence from Britain in 1948, claiming that they have not been granted the autonomy promised under an agreement signed in 1947.

General Saw Johny, chief-of-staff of Karen National Liberation Army, said the struggle could continue, but no longer by arms. "We are now trying to solve it by political means," he told reporters.

Speaking off the record, at least one Myanmar-watcher was skeptical.

"While this is a step in the right direction, the fact that it is so close to the elections - and that they pushed through with only eight parties - means this may be more of a political show for (President)Thein Sein," said an academic in the region, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Thein Sein earlier said he was hoping to make concrete progress in the peace talks before the elections set for November 8, which some analysts say his party is likely to lose.

The latest round of talks was the seventh in four years, which have also seen around 200 informal meetings.

Khun Tun Oo, leader of Shan National League for Democracy, cautioned against reading too much into the outcome.

"None of the groups still fighting the Tamadaw (army) signed," he said. "There was fighting in some parts of the country even during the signing ceremony. So, should we call this a real national ceasefire? Is it meaningful? That's why I did not sign as a witness."

As leader of the party that came second in the 1990 polls, he was invited to sign at Thursday's ceremony but declined, as did Aung Sang Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy. Both sent representatives, who signed for their respective parties.

"Anyway, I am not a pessimist," he said. "I want to hope this very first step can bring meaningful peace to our land."