Have Thai-US ties reached a ‘new normal’?

Whatever it meant, the remark was put to good use to improve Thai-US relations, albeit despite some hiccups. Such a perception has necessitated some late policy shifts on the part of the US towards Thailand since the end of September. A senior Thai foreign ministry official even declared that Thai-US relations have now reached a “new normal” after their much delayed 5th Strategic Dialogue, which was held in Bangkok two weeks ago.
Daniel Russel, Assistant State Secretary for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, left a better impression in Thailand this time around after his presentation. Judging from the joint statement issued after the dialogue, it was rich with symbolism with some tangible outcomes. Both sides agreed to meet and several meetings were planned, along with the implementation of the 2012 joint vision on Thai-US strategic relations.
Most importantly for this trip, there was a clear indication that bilateral ties have moved on with the “forward looking” agenda and normalisation after 19 months of stigmatisation. At least, the Thai side received that strong impression.
However, without an elected government – which will not come any time soon – Thai-US ties cannot go as far as they wish due to US legal constraints. Short of giving official recognition and a resumption of official assistance, the latest strategic dialogue actually signalled for all other US government agencies to begin engaging with Thailand. So far, only the US Defence Department has maintained close working ties with Thailand.
Reasons are many to explain the ‘sudden’ American turn-around and greater flexibility toward Thailand, without the past diplomatic bravado. Three major factors stood out. First of all, it was the American-led coalition’s fight against extremists that once again placed Thailand back on the radar in Washington. The shooting in San Bernardino prompted the US to take a high profile in fight against the Islamic State, and after years of adversarial ties, the US and Russia are now collaborating on joint strategies to fight ISIS.
Within Southeast Asia, the US and the West continue to perceive the region as a second front in the battle against extremists and terrorists. The numbers of fighters joining ISIS from Southeast Asian countries has now passed one thousand — mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.
To pursue the American-led coalition, the US needs Thailand’s full security cooperation as part of its overall strategy. In the past, the US enjoyed a high-level of trust with the Thai military in any joint cooperation to fight against terrorism and other non-military threats. Such trust had all but evaporated since the power seizure last May. In 2011, cables released by WikiLeaks detailed Washington’s cynicism about many aspects of Thai life and society. This soured Thai-US ties and stopped Thai bureaucrats from talking casually with their US counterparts. Indeed, ill feeling still lingers.
Since the Gulf War in 1990, every major security operation by US forces based in the Pacific involved Thai facilities at U-Tapao airbase and Sattahip navy base, which were shared to the maximum without any reluctance. However, Thailand was not in a mood to cooperate – and grant rights for surveillance flights to the US across the Indian Ocean in May, to monitor the number of irregular migrants stranded at sea. This was reflected the worsening relations with the US. If this attitude continued to persist, it would have had serious ramifications, especially to US interoperability capacity in the region.
Second, Thai-US relations obviously had much to do with the China factor. In the absence of normal bilateral transactions with the US since May 2014, China has enjoyed carte blanche uncontested opportunities to forge ahead with all round cooperation with Thailand. Beijing has wisely chosen to strengthen its defence and security ties with the Prayut regime. Other countries including Japan, Australia, India and South Korea have also benefitted from engaging with Thailand. Good personal ties at the top between Thailand and China have been put to good use in the post-coup period. Numerous government-to-government negotiations and transactions were made quickly without fuss and an increase in quantity — some of which would have been impossible if Thai-US ties remained strong. That helped explain why so many new Thai-China cooperation schemes have popped up.
Finally, the US rebalancing policy would not be complete without Thailand being part and parcel of this Asia-Pacific strategic blueprint. As the region’s oldest ally, the US wants to ascertain that Thailand is not cropped out because of its unfavorable domestic conditions, as perceived by the US State Department. Washington mistakenly thought the Prayut leadership would not last over a year – like his predecessor, General Surayud Chulanond, after the 2006 coup. The US Embassy in Bangkok believed the recent coup was just another chapter of the country’s vicious political circle. But it was not to be this time. The 2017 roadmap outlined by Prayut is here to stay. America’s ongoing criticism of the military administration will not change a thing inside Thailand for the foreseeable future.
It must be noted that since US Ambassador Glyn Davies took up the position, the use of social media as a means of public diplomacy has been greatly reduced — a clear break from his predecessor. Davies prefers to use conventional public diplomacy that involves meeting and talking with stakeholders. Thailand wishes that the US would behave like France, Germany and Australia, which have engaged constructively in the country’s reform process. These three countries’ contributions were highlighted during the recent meeting between Davies and Deputy Prime Minister Pravit Wongsuwan.
Fortunately, the Obama administration wants to highlight diplomatic success with Asean, especially over Myanmar’s road to democracy. At home, Obama is considered a loser in overall US foreign policy. Apart from plans to host a special US-Asean Summit in mid-February at the Annenberg Retreat at Sunnylands in California, the US president expressed a strong desire to return to Myanmar before his second term ends to meet all the key players. They include Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, U Thein Sein, Min Aung Hlaing and Thura Shwe Mann.
As part of his legacy with Asean, Obama decided early to attend the 4th Asean-US Summit and 11th East Asia Summit due to be held from September 6-8 next year in Laos, when Vientiane will be host, as the current Asean chair. Obama hopes that his visit will produce a similar impact in Laos as his visits to Myanmar.
In the final analysis, the message from Daniel’s trip is succinct - the US would like to continue to work with Thailand despite all the shortcomings, including issues related to freedom of expression and freedom of assembly. Next year, a series of high-level talks are planned. The new year will start with Cobra Gold, the region’s largest annual military exercise, which is due to run from February 9-19, and will be followed by the 5th Defence Strategic Dialogue in mid-2016, plus meetings on science and technology, trade and investment.