2016: Who wishes what in Thai politics

Prayut Chan-o-cha: As bumpy as last year might have seemed it will pale in comparison to 2016. He can expect a perfect storm this year, brewed from the accumulative effects of contentious charter reform, Yingluck Shinawatra’s trial, a bad economy and the Rajabhakti Park controversy. On his New Year wish list, therefore, must be for the charter draft to pass in a referendum, the Yingluck trial not to trigger an uprising, the economy to bounce back and the park scandal to fade away.

Wouldn’t it be easier just to step down and let somebody else worry about the problems? That could, in fact, be Prayut’s ultimate New Year wish. 

Yingluck Shinawatra: You might assume she is wishing for a not-guilty verdict in the rice pledging case. Not so fast. I would guess what she wants is a bit more complicated than that. Yes, she could escape jail with an acquittal – but that scenario would rule out her martyrdom. And a not-guilty ruling won’t change the fact that she was impeached in 2015, which means she’s out of politics for five years anyway.

Without the crucifixion there would be no Christianity. This is not to say that Yingluck bears comparison with the Son of God. This is to say that perceived victimisation is, more often than not, necessary in Thai politics. Obviously, Yingluck doesn’t want to go to jail – but a guilty verdict might not entail time behind bars. Hence the question is, how she might get a guilty verdict that doesn’t land her in jail and eventually benefits her political camp – including her eldest brother.

And don’t forget the impeachment. Its consequences can only be erased through an upheaval. Deciding which would be a stronger catalyst for upheaval – an acquittal or a guilty verdict – is a no-brainer.

Abhisit Vejjajiva: If you think Yingluck’s New Year wish list is complex, let’s hear about what the leader of the Democrat Party must be wanting. First off, he needs a victory in the Appeals Court against a Defence Ministry order that stripped him of his Army rank over allegations he dodged conscription. If that wish doesn’t come true, his hopes will be pinned on the new charter allowing a non-MP to become prime minister. And in the unlikely event that it fails to permit an outsider PM and maintains the longstanding bar to politics against anyone stripped of official rank for corruption, he will want his appeal to be judged without reference to corruption, and most likely by the Constitutional Court.

All this is assuming that he still harbours ambitions to be prime minister again.

Suthep Thaugsuban: He will be wishing that the new charter draft, which is being put together by another set of military appointees, passes the public referendum. If, instead, Thais say “No” to the draft, it’s likely that a general election will go ahead anyway, albeit under one of the old Constitutions. That scenario would place Suthep, leader of the “reform-before-election” movement, in a very awkward spot. And if he then decides to take to the streets again, he will put another man, Prayut Chan-o-cha, in an even more awkward position.

Thaksin Shinawatra: Many analysts say another uprising is all this guy wants. They should consider the fact that an uprising could go either way. The best-case scenario as far as Thaksin is concerned would be an uprising that quickly reinstalled his political camp in government. The worst case would be another unwanted “intervention” that would prolong his already-long wait. With the military pledging a return to civilian rule next year, timing has become very tricky for all its opponents. One wrong move and a general election everyone is eager for could face further significant delay.

Many refuse to believe that peaceful politics is what Thaksin wants this year. Well, let’s just say his New Year wish must be for Thais to hate the military just enough to propel his party back to power, but not enough to do anything crazy that might give the powers-that-be reason to extend the freeze on democracy.

Epilogue: The Democrat and Pheu Thai parties’ positions are no less complicated than those of the individuals, and the New Year wishes of their supporters might differ from those of their leaders. If most Democrats still back Abhisit, then they must share his wishes, meaning there might come a time when they will have to back a charter draft that allows an outsider prime minister. Pheu Thai, meanwhile, must be wishing that Abhisit stays on as leader, which would spare it the headache of finding a credible chief who is not merely a proxy for Thaksin.

All this points to a highly complex year in which the political scene will be carved by different and extremely subtle wishes, some uncompromising and others compatible.