Japan worried about possible REGIONAL STRATEGIC SHIFTS
To understand how seriously Japan guards its territorial waters, one has to visit Okinawa, the centre of the US security network. Japanese and American officials at their separate airbases are on alert around the clock. They have made clear their cooperation under the Japan-US defence treaty, which is the security backbone for the island nation and the Asia-Pacific.
Discussions with senior members of the Fifth Air Wing of the Japan Self-Defence Forces, which is stationed on the island and responsible for the maritime zone surrounding Okinawa and the vicinity, revealed the state-of-the-art surveillance systems and techniques that secure a vast expanse of sea and air.
Visiting the US Marine Corps Air Station at Futenma Base as Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte repeatedly bashes the United States, the news headlines inevitably dominate discussions about the future of the US alliance in the region. Duterte’s maverick comments have caused “great con?cerns” and “tremendous uncertainties” for Japanese and American security officials here. After all, this is the first time that they have had to cope with ripple effects from the overall security arrangement in Asia. The Philippines is one of the oldest US allies in Southeast Asia, alongside Thailand. To have Duterte declare a separation – which he later said he did not mean – has generated anxieties over the future of US bases. During Duterte’s visit to Japan last week, the president continued to send mixed signals to the US.
Since the end of World War II, Okinawa has served as the nerve centre of US forward operations for this important part of the world. The US airbases occupy about 10 per cent of the island’s territory, hosting about 20,000 troops. The American officials at Futenma base assure journalists and visitors that they have local support and enjoy an extremely good rapport with local residents as they conduct regular activities and programmes that cement their personal and community relations despite the frequent anti-American reports in the local media. But despite the good community links and public diplomacy, negative news about the US presence has often sur?faced. For instance on October 25, the Okinawa Times revealed that there had been 156 recorded oil spills at Futenma Base since 2005, but only four cases had been reported to the central government in Tokyo, which raised eyebrows in the local community.
Prof Kurayoshi Takara of Ryukyus University did not mince words when he said that the Futenma Base had to be relocated and the voices of local people must be respected. He was referring to the two-decade old controversy regarding the siting of the base, concluded in 2006 without Okinawans residents being consulted. The base is located smack in the city centre amid schools and residential areas. Despite the agreement, local administrative and political shifts – plus misconduct by US soldiers – have contributed to an overall delay of the plan, causing tussles between the island’s authorities and Tokyo. The Japanese government wants to go ahead with the relocation of the base to Henoko but local authorities have rejected the plan. Both sides have agreed to complete the relocation by 2022.
Takara echoed a similar sentiment. In some quarters of Okinawa, residents think that the island should do away with Futenma and other US bases to assert its independence and protecting the environment and their way of life. The professor cited a recent survey saying that while more than half of main?land Japanese supported the US security role, less than 30 per cent of respondents in Okinawa backed the US. Along with many local residents, he believes the central government needs to listen more to the islanders and heed their concerns. “The mainlanders tend to think the US base is an Okinawa problem, not a national one,” Takara said. Although he frequently cites the importance of the US security protection, admitting that Japan cannot defend itself alone, Takara wants to see the local residents have more say regarding the future US bases.
The US under the Obama administration has sought to modernise, reform and restructure its armed forces. The rebalancing policy toward Asia is part and parcel of this effort, which has seen a force reduction in Okinawa – 5,000 soldiers will be relocated to Guam and 2,500 to Australia. However, external “eruptive” factors, such as Duterte’s new revelations about a “separation”, could have catastrophic outcomes to the US strategy in the region, if the threat is carried out. Both Japanese and American officials are closely following the so-called “Duterte effect”.
Since he returned as prime minister, Shinzo Abe has increased his country’s international profile. Now Japan is active in international peace missions and its self-defence forces can enter combat on behalf of allies and friends. Granted the importance of the US security pact to Japan, it is necessary for Japan to show that it is a worthwhile alliance by providing all the necessary support as well as changes that would strengthen the US-Japan security ties.
The future of US military sustainability in the region is no longer a sure thing when there local opponents and strong civic movements. Leadership changes in Japan and in the region these days have greater implications on US security than before. And such changes come when US influence is not as strong as in the past. US allies and friends have become more assertive and individualistic in searching for more options as well as friends.