2017 rice exports forecast at 10m tonnes
THAILAND is expected to export between 9.5 million and 10 million tonnes of rice next year, the same or slightly more than this year’s total of about 9.5 million tonnes, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association.
The forecast is close to the Commerce Ministry’s prediction of rice exports of 10 million tonnes next year.
Charoen Laothammatas, president of the association, said rice exports in 2017 should benefit from rising demand in some markets such as the Middle East, where higher oil prices will increase purchasing power.
However, competition will also be tougher as global rice production is expected increase slightly.
Other factors still to be monitored include the global economic recovery amid stronger growth in many markets, mainly the United States, while China is expected to post slower economic growth.
Expected rising oil prices will also affect the prices of commodities and crops, while climate change could have an impact on production of rice and other cereal grains.
Impact on price
Thailand’s policy to decrease rice production and plantation areas, and the government’s plan to release rice from its stockpiles, should also affect the rice price in the market, Charoen said.
Government-to-government contracts will also influence the volume and value of rice exports in 2017, he said.
The association reported that rice exports in the first 11 months of this year amounted to 8.17 million tonnes worth Bt137 billion, an increase of 1.6 per cent by volume and 0.1 per cent in value compared with the same period last year.
In November, rice exports surged by 32.1 per cent to 1 million tonnes worth Bt15.69 billion, up 24.8 per cent in value year on year.
The increase last month was largely due to the sale of rice to COFCO in China under a G2G contract, as well as exports to Malaysia, Japan and the Philippines. The volume of rice exports to some countries in Africa also increased.
Last month, white-rice export was up strongly by 24 per cent from October to 531,843 tonnes, while shipment of parboiled rice decreased 6.4 per cent month on month to 247,731 tonnes, and export of Hom Mali rice rose 37 per cent to 202,901 tonnes.
For December, the association has projected rice-export volume of about 800,000 tonnes. According to the association’s report and the website riceonline.com, as of Wednesday the price of 5 per cent white Thai rice was about $370 per tonne, while Vietnamese rice was $337 and India’s $355 per tonne.
