Experts gloomy over prospects for economy facing pressures

The growth rate of gross domestic product is likely to remain slow at about 3 per cent or even around 2.5 per cent, the slowest in the region, he warned.
He said government investments in infrastructure projects had so far not led to more private investment because investors did not have much confidence in the direction of the country. 
The government has failed to live up to its promise of economic reform, he said. 
“The government has not put in place clear rules and regulations, and bureaucracy has been growing, resulting in slow decision-making processes and inefficient implementation,” he said. 
The government has been busy launching many projects, but got lost in the big picture, he said. 
The government plans to investment in rail, roads and ports as well as create new economic zones and the Eastern Economic Corridor development project while picking winning industries. 
“Should the government set clear rules, impartially enforce contracts and laws and offer appropriate incentives, the private sector will create many investment projects itself,” he said.
“Government economic policy is not inclusive, the policy tends to favour large firms.” 
Bandid’s comments echo investor complaints of red tape in licensing, the complexity of tax payment and officials’ discretionary practices. 
While the government promised to tackle corruption, the issue remains, he stated. 
 Many government infrastructure projects have been delayed by inefficient decision-making by officials, he added. 
The National Economic and Social Development Board projected private investment to expand by only 2.8 per cent in 2017, while it forecast that public investment would remain high at 11.2 per cent. 
It also projected GDP growth at 3-4 per cent, with exports tipped to grow marginally at 1.2 per cent. 
Bandid warned that the government would face limits to fiscal spending due to rising public debt, while the central bank would be under pressure to raise interest rates should the US Federal Reserve increase its policy rate again.
Professer Teerana Bhongmakapat, former dean of Chulalongkorn University’s economics faculty, also expressed concern over the outlook of Thailand’s exports, because of the weakening competitiveness of the Thai export sector and the highly uncertain global economy. 
The global economy has slowly recovered against the backdrop of the over-capacity of production in emerging markets, such as Asian countries, Teerana said. He added that this could result in a prolonged export contraction or no more than a flat growth rate for Thailand. 
“The middle class and lower-income groups will further suffer from income uncertainty and job security. Only the rich, who having high savings, could do well in 2017,” he said. 
Nopporn Thepsitha , president of the Thai National Shippers’ Council, said the new year would be a crucial time for the Thailand export sector. “Exports could plunge into the bottomless abyss or recover,” he said in reference to the country’s negative export growth over the past few years. 
He is also worried about the threat facing Thailand from a probable trade war between China and the United States when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office this month. The sentiment in the US and Europe against free trade and globalisation could also result in falling global trade, he said. 
He added that some exporters expect a further contraction in shipments this year. “Some projected slightly positive growth but I think it could be zero.” 
Pisit Puapan, director of the macroeconomics analysis division at the Fiscal Policy Office, is cautiously optimistic about the export outlook after an unexpected 10.2-per-cent spike in exports in November. He said that was a sign of a possible recovery, but it was unclear if it would lead to a trend.