UTCC puts losses from floods in South at more than Bt22 bn 

Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the UTCC’s Economic and Business Forecasting Centre, said that for the nation as a whole, the floods should not have a major impact, lowering the Kingdom’s economic growth by 0.1 percentage point, so the growth forecast of 3.5-4 per cent this year should be met.
However, gross domestic product in the Southern region will fall short of the previous growth forecast of 3.2 per cent, reaching only 2 per cent.
The Bt22.36-billion loss figure comprises Bt10.86 billion suffered by the trading, industrial and tourism sectors; Bt8.1 billion in the agriculture sector, mainly from damage to rubber plantations totalling Bt4.4 billion, fishery Bt1.25 billion, livestock Bt1 billion, rice Bt950 million, and oil palm Bt500 million; and Bt3.4 billion for damage to infrastructure such as roads, railways and bridges, as well as homes.
The survey also found that 60 per cent of southern enterprises had been hit by the flooding, either directly or indirectly.
Southern enterprises have foreseen that they will need about two months to recover, while business will be slow for about six weeks. Sales will be hit hardest, followed by higher costs of transportation.
Priority assistance that southern people need are rehabilitation of farming areas, increasing investors’ confidence, boosting growth in the industrial and tourism sectors, helping people get back to work, soft loans, and reducing tariffs for southern enterprises, and solving water problem, the UTCC says.
Meanwhile, Thai enterprises overall are optimistic about business growth this year as the Business Sentiment Index rose from 93.6 points to 106.4 points, above the 100-point baseline. Wachira Koontaweethep, assistant director of the forecasting centre, said the survey polled 600 businesspeople and found that most confidence was in the service sector, followed by the industrial, trading and agricultural sectors.
More than 42 per cent believed their sales would increase this year, while profits and inventories would also rise.
The UTCC poll also found that small and medium-sized enterprises showed moderate competitiveness in the fourth quarter of last year amid rising costs of production and lack of funds, which made it difficult for them to penetrate overseas markets or even survive at home.
The survey pegged the SME competitiveness index at 48.4 points in the final quarter of 2016, and the UTCC foresees the index increasing slightly to 48.6 points in the first half of this year, reflecting moderate competency in various areas.
The index measures SME health, competency and sustainability. A score above 50 means strong competitiveness.
Positive factors for the growth of SMEs are the government’s infrastructure projects and stimulus packages, a positive outlook for stronger exports and tourism growth, expected higher crop prices, and stable politics.
SMEs are concerned about uncertain global economic growth and the newly elected US president’s policies, Brexit, higher interest rates, a slowing Chinese economy, high household debt, and difficulty of accessing loans from banks and other financial institutions.
The SME GDP is expected to grow by 4.2 per cent this year, up from about 3.7 per cent last year.