WEDNESDAY, April 24, 2024
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Why Malaysia had to soften tough stand against Pyongyang

Why Malaysia had to soften tough stand against Pyongyang

The diplomatic crisis between Malaysia and North Korea is unlikely to end soon and the tensions may drag on for months and even longer.

First, North Korea has banned nine staff and family members from the Malaysian embassy in North Korea from leaving the country, effectively treating them as hostages. The government has to free them through negotiations.
Negotiation is a hard and draining task. The main reason for North Korea to “hold” the Malaysians is to claim Kim Jong-nam’s body so as to destroy evidence of the use of the VX nerve agent in his assassination.
While Malaysia insists on complying with international law and regulation, it would have to also consider the safety of its citizens in North Korea. 
North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un may resort to other tactics too. Malaysia could seek China’s help for mediation if the negotiation hits a snag but Kim Jong-un is not an easy person to deal with.
Taking into consideration the Malaysians’ safety, the government has since adjusted its tough stand against North Korea after it had cancelled visa-free entry to North Koreans, deported the only North Korean suspect in Kim Jong-nam’s murder Ri Jong-chol, expelled North Korean Ambassador to Malaysia Kang Chol, and at one time sealed off the North Korean Embassy in Malaysia. After the “hostage crisis” surfaced, the government then began to spare the rats in order to save the dishes.
Secondly, the authorities require time to complete their investigation and prosecute those involved in Kim Jong-nam’s murder. The police has charged two foreign women but two other North Korean suspects – Hyon Kwang-song, second secretary at the North Korean Embassy, and Kim Uk-il, an Air Koryo staff, are still in the North Korean Embassy in Malaysia.
Unless Malaysia and North Korea sever diplomatic ties or shut down the embassy, police cannot carry out arrests in the embassy. The negotiations will have to include the whereabouts of the North Korean suspects. Pyongyang would not let its people end up with the Malaysian police. There may be some obstacles here.
Thirdly, how to handle Kim Jong-nam’s body? His son, Kim Han-sol, has “appeared” on a YouTube video. Apparently his mother and younger sister were worried for their safety and did not dare to be in Kuala Lumpur. They sought help from the secret group Cheollima Civil Defence to hide.
Even if the authorities secured the DNA to confirm that the deceased was indeed Kim Jong-nam, who is claiming the body? The murder, which caught international attention, involved the use of banned chemical weapons. The remains would have to be handed over to an international agency for examination as grounds for United Nations to impose further sanction on North Korea.
Malaysia has stated that once investigations and other legal processes are completed, it would share related evidence with international authorities. This would take time.
Kim Jong-un’s decision to assassinate his elder half-brother at this time is not an impromptu move but a carefully thought out decision. China needs the communist North Korea to counter military threats from the United States, South Korea and Japan. Hence, the North Korean is not worried about offending China.
Although China would have been keen to back Kim Jong-nam, who would have been more obedient, to replace Kim Jong-un, China is unlikely to create a situation where it falls out with the incumbent North Korean leader. National interest would be of paramount importance.
The North Korean dictator is fully aware of the conflicts among China, Korea and Japan. It fired four missiles at its base near the border of North Korea and China, which landed in Sea of Japan, 1,000km away from the base. South Korea was shocked and immediately deployed its anti-missile defence system called the Terminal high Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) capable of detecting half of China. This is a threat to China’s security and hence China needs to maintain North Korea as an ally.
Kim Jong-un’s continuous move to launch missiles is aimed at provoking a conflict between China, Japan and South Korea. 
The ban imposed by the Chinese government against South Korea has also prompted the Chinese people to boycott Lotte, which leased land for the project. This inadvertently would have an impact on China-South Korea trade ties.
Ties between China and South Korea are at a low point, which is very much in Kim Jong-un’s interest.
Tensions in the Korean Peninsula may change with political developments.
Malaysia is embroiled in a battle of giants and it has to beware of a thuggish nation that is resorting to dirty tactics. Due to its limited resources, it can only protect its own interests. The softening of its tough stand is reasonable.

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