Kresearch upbeat on exports
In its assessment of the trade policy of the US and global trade situations, Kasikorn Research (Kresearch) said although the US has implemented various trade protectionism measures that produce different impacts on trade partners and product types, there are certain flexibilities that may limit the overall impacts and lead to trade negotiations with each trade partner of the US.
Therefore, the situation will not likely escalate into a trade war.
However, the US's latest protectionism which will cost around US$60 billion in Chinese imported products may indirectly affect supply chains and exports of the East Asian region including Thailand. In short-term, Thai exports at risk may include computers accessories and parts, electrical appliance and mobile phone components – which are major products within the Chinese supply chains.
Furthermore, Thailand is also at risk of being on the list of US trade partners meeting US criteria on exchange-rate manipulation. This implies that Thai policymakers may have their hands tied in manoeuvring the foreign exchange policy, which may prompt the Thai baht to rise swiftly and a volatile course. It is also possible that the US may implement protectionist measures against Thai-made products. The situation thus merits a close watch.
Amid the risks of a global trade war, KResearch maintains its export growth forecast for 2018 at 4.5 per cent, given that Thai shipments posted a double-digit growth in January and February.
The uptick was seen in major Thai export categories and markets, suggesting that outward trade is largely supported by global demand. If this factor continues during the remainder of 2018, it is expected Thai exports may grow by more than 4.5 per cent this year.
