Will electoral earthquakes free blocked peace in South?  

In spite of hiccups plaguing the pilot project, Thailand is still committed to this peace initiative – at least that was the message Chalermchai was sending out to MARA Patani and the world.
Thai officials at the policy level say they have been informed by the Malaysian facilitator that leaders of the separatist Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) have agreed to respect the Safety Zone ceasefire if and when the district is officially designated. No timeline was agreed upon, however.
Bangkok sees this as a gesture of goodwill from senior members of the BRN ruling council to facilitator Ahmad Zamzamin bin Hashim. The assurance is said to have been made last year at a meeting in which Zamzamin tried to convince BRN representatives to join the peace initiative being led by MARA Patani. Needless to say, the BRN declined the invitation.
Given the fluidity of the BRN chain-of-command, not to mention that their command-and-control from the top to the cell level is untested, such an agreement will be difficult to manage, says a Thai military official working on the region.
The BRN are extremely bottom-heavy, with decisions to launch attacks made mainly at the local level.
For the combatants, it is a matter of grasping opportunity as it comes, usually employing roadside bombs to attack security units patrolling on foot or vehicles. The strategic aim is for a “clean hit” without collateral damage. Government security officials are more or less sitting ducks, waiting to return fire.
As for the talks with MARA Patani, it is not clear how long Bangkok will continue on a course that some officials describe as a “vicious cycle”. So far, whenever Thai negotiators and MARA Patani have hailed “progress”, BRN operatives have carried out attacks to discredit the claims.
The BRN say the Safety Zone project will not change their strategy, which is to make the area ungovernable by attacking and discrediting government security apparatus.
The bombing blitz in the far South that hit more than 20 ATM machines on May 20 was a reminder to Thai authorities that the BRN are still a force to be reckoned with. The bombs were shrapnel-free devices detonated in almost deserted streets half an hour after people had broken their Ramadan fast. All the bombings were carried out in the heart of cities and, in most cases, just metres away from security checkpoints.
Local opinion was that the simultaneous attacks came in response to a dispute between teachers and a group of Muslim parents at the Anuban Pattani School over the banning of the Islamic headscarf for Muslim students.
But rebel sources deny this. They point out that traditionally at least one high-profile attack is conducted during the month of Ramadan, to remind the Thai government that the 2004 Tak Bai massacre of 78 unarmed Malay Muslim demonstrators – who suffocated after being stacked one atop the other in the back of military transport tracks – has not been forgotten. Seven were also shot dead at the protest site. 
Less than a week prior to the blitz, exactly one day before the start of Ramadan, separatist militants attacked four military outposts and a police station in Yala province’s Krong Pinang and Yaha districts. 
The overall number of attacks may have dropped over the past decade, but the militants continue to send a message that they are willing an able to carry on the fight with the same intensity as when this wave of insurgency surfaced 14 years ago.
Stakeholders in this peace initiative are now waiting anxiously to see Kuala Lumpur’s next move. Many observers believe Malaysia’s Zamzamin, the designated facilitator, will be replaced as he is deemed too close to former prime minister Najib Razak.
For the BRN, it doesn’t matter whether Zamzamin stays or goes. They see themselves as the most important players because they control the course of insurgency violence and thus any peace negotiations will have to be with them. 
The unfortunate part for Thai authorities is that the BRN are not in a hurry to come to the negotiating table.
How long Thailand will ride this roller-coaster with MARA Patani remains unclear. But a growing number of Thai officials believe the upcoming election in Thailand, which could be as early as February, along with major changes in Malaysia’s political landscape, means serious soul-searching is in order for the peace initiative for the far South. Whether that means internationalising the process, on the other hand, remains to be seen.

Don Pathan is a freelance consultant and founding member of the Patani Forum (www.pataniforum.com), a civil society organisation dedicated to critical discussion on the conflict in Thailand’s far South.