The Marcos dynasty’s desperate last stand 

The remains of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos have been buried at the national heroes’ cemetery; his only son and namesake has a live election protest against the incumbent vice president; his eldest daughter Imee, the governor of his home province of Ilocos Norte, is polling well in her battle for a Senate seat; and his wife Imelda, at 89, is on her third term as congressional representative for the Marcos’ stronghold.

But despite obvious public support for the president, and a well-funded social media operation promoting the Marcos worldview, the Duterte era may turn out to be the Marcos family’s last gasp. This could their last opportunity to win back the presidency and everything that goes with it.
Any failure will certainly not be for lack of trying, or the help of friends in high places.
Duterte has been fulsome about his gratitude to Imee, one of few provincial governors to support his presidential campaign from the start. He even risked legal action by blurting out she had donated money to his campaign – and took a loan to do so. In his official accounting of campaign contributions, Duterte did not list Imee Marcos as a donor. She had to issue a denial so as to avoid legal repercussions.
Duterte, at 73 the Philippines oldest-ever leader, has also said he would be happy to give up his demanding position – but only if Ferdinand Marcos Jr were vice president. As it is, Ferdinand Jr’s election protest against Vice President Leni Robredo is pending a recount by the Presidential Election Tribunal in three “pilot areas” the Marcos campaign alleges suffered election fraud. Every now and then, Duterte enquires publicly about the status of the election protest. Marcos Jr, who won his first (and only) national election in 2010, when he ran for the Senate, lost the vice-presidential race by only a quarter of a million votes.
His sister Imee is poised to become the third Marcos to enter the Senate. In the latest opinion poll, she has a 94-per-cent national awareness rating and ranks eighth out of some five dozen prospective candidates. Twelve Senate seats are at stake in the May 13, 2019 elections.
But underneath this veneer of success, the Marcos dynasty must be only too aware of its vulnerabilities.
The family’s track record in national elections since they were allowed to return to the Philippines has been chequered. Imelda lost in the 1992 presidential race, Ferdinand Jr lost his first bid for the Senate in 1995, then lost the vice-presidential vote in 2016. Their only win at the national level came in the 2010 Senate race.
Ferdinand Jr’s election protest is also not the sure win his social media handlers are painting it to be. The odds are against him. Two of his three contentions have been rejected by the election tribunal, leaving just the allegation of election fraud in the three provinces. If he fails to prove it, his challenge for the vice presidency is over.
Imelda’s third term as congresswoman ends next year and by law she cannot run for re-election. As her latest appearances on TV also show, her cognitive faculties are no longer what they used to be. Imee and Ferdinand Jr are only in their early 60s, with potentially decades in political office ahead of them. But no Marcos from the third generation is emerging as a political personality. Imee’s son MJ is a provincial board member on his first term; Ferdinand Jr’s son Sandro has a sizeable following on social media. But they do not have the reputation, or seemingly the stomach, for Marcos-style politics.
The family’s erstwhile allies have also not stood still, waiting for the next generation to grow up. Perhaps most galling for the once all-powerful family, Ferdinand Marcos Jr would have been vice-president now if the so-called Solid North, the bloc of northern provinces famously loyal to old man Marcos, had held together for his son. Ferdinand Jr won them overwhelmingly, but Robredo’s haul of votes from the Solid North was – wait for it – larger than Ferdinand Jr’s total losing margin.
None of this is to discount the Marcos family’s considerable advantages: great wealth; fame (or infamy – there’s no real difference to many); a revisionist campaign in full gear; Duterte’s goodwill; and not least, the ability to lie through the teeth about the Marcos dictatorship. But when Imelda retires and, if seems likely, Ferdinand Jr loses, not even a Senate seat for Imee will mask the reality: The Marcos dynasty does not have a viable successor generation.

John Nery is editor of the Philippine Inquirer Digital, and an Asia News Network board member. The Asian Writers’ Circle is a series of columns on global affairs written by editors and journalists from Asia News Network newspapers and published throughout the region