THURSDAY, March 28, 2024
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US sailing red line in backing Taipei 

US sailing red line in backing Taipei 

There are likely three reasons why the passage on Monday of two US military vessels through the Taiwan Straits hardly made a splash. 

It occurred in international waters.
It was, in United States Pacific Fleet spokesman Commander Nate Christensen’s words, “in accordance with international law”.
And US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis had just assured his Chinese counterpart that US commitment to the “one China” principle remained unchanged. 
But this was in fact the second time that the US Navy has sent warships through the Taiwan Straits since July. And that has not been the case for some time.
It certainly means something. And the intention is believed to be two-pronged: a flexing of US military muscle at the mainland and Taiwan – sending a “warning” to the former and a message of assurance to the administration on the island.
Like most similar so-called freedom of navigation exercises the US Navy has conducted, such operations are like shadowboxing.
Commander Christensen’s claim that the transit demonstrated “US commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific” was far-fetched, if not outlandish. The Indo-Pacific has never been unfree or unopen, with or without US gunboats. There is no indication that China is preventing the US Navy from flying, sailing or operating “anywhere international law allows”. But Beijing could not be clearer about its bottom line: its sovereignty, a core national interest, is not to be compromised, by anyone and by any means.
Not that Beijing does not care about peace. If this were the case, it would not have dispatched the largest number of peacekeepers under the United Nations banner. But its own security interests by and large revolve around territorial integrity and national reunification.
If the Monday voyage was indeed intended as a warning to Beijing, it will not be effective. The mainland will do whatever it takes to safeguard what it deems to be its core interests. But the sail-by may have sent a misleading signal to the independence-leaning authorities in Taipei, encouraging them believe that Washington has them covered no matter what they might do. Should they cross the mainland’s red line, however, they will put that faith to a severe test.
Military hawks in Washington have tried hard to scare Beijing and console Taipei. But they should consider the dire consequences of their country being dragged into a costly confrontation that would be both unnecessary and avoidable.
The odds against such a prospect shorten considerably if they do not know when and where to stop.

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