Exports, tourism to face heat amid global strains

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) said it expects the economy to grow in the range of 4-4.3 per cent in 2019 The value of exports is forecast to expand 5-7 per cent this year, led by manufacturing and agricultural products, it said. Headline inflation is estimated to come in at 0.8-1.2 per cent.

Domestic spending 
The JSCCIB forecast that 2018 economic growth would come in at 4.3 per cent, with exports expanding 8 per cent and headline inflation at 1.1 per cent.
This year the economy is expected to rely mainly on domestic spending and investment, particularly from state coffers.
The business grouping believes the impact of tropical storm Pabuk on the economy will be short term only, and relief measures and other assistance from a range of sources will alleviate the economic strains on the affected areas.
The postponement of the oft-delayed national election – most recently from February – is not expected to have much impact on the economy as the government's budget disbursements are continuing, the JSCCIB said.
The threats to Thailand’s economic growth are mainly external.
Aside from progress on the US-China trade negotiations, discussions over the US budget deadlock and that country’s debt ceiling, the US Federal Reserve's rates-tightening trend will likely continue to move the global money markets, the JSCCIB said. That means possible volatility in the baht should be monitored closely. The grouping also said the manner of Britain’s exit from the European Union was a factor of concern, the JSCCIB said.
The committee has been encouraged by Fed chairman Jerome Powell's softer tone of late that has eased investor concerns about further tightening, noting that the Fed will be flexible with all its monetary policy tools, including the important balance sheet. 
The US central bank is expected to raise the benchmark Fed Funds rate only once this year, the committee said.