All change! Twelve hours is a long time in Thai politics

All that changed in one dramatic day.
Thai Raksa Chart’s move to nominate Princess Ubolratana as its candidate for prime minister was doomed by a royal command from HM the King. At the same time the tide also turned for medium-sized parties. In theory, they can still join the Pheu Thai-led alliance; in practice, they would have to be very bold to do so.
Before Friday’s roller-coaster developments, the Democrat, Bhumjaithai, Chartthaipattana and Chart Pattana parties constituted powerful variables who could play kingmaker if Palang Pracharat or Pheu Thai failed to win enough seats to form a government by themselves. Now, that bargaining power will never be the same.
Thai Raksa Chart made a very bold move that defied longstanding Thai tradition. A princess spearheading a grass-roots uprising is, after all, the stuff of fairy-tales. 
In reality, and especially in the context of Thai politics, there is more to fear than ferocious dragons or giant catapults hurling fiery stones. And, unlike bedtime stories, Thai politics spares no one.
Princess Ubolratana’s foray on to the political battleground was as short-lived as it was shocking. And that may actually be a blessing. Had she gone on to become prime minister, the romance would likely have evaporated quickly, giving way to the cruellest ironies. Her special status may have become progressively glaring, particularly when placed next to that of the political party she represented. Fortune would not have treated the move kindly.
In a fairy-tale, a princess lost in the wilderness will eventually make a triumphant return. Those who harboured ill intentions against her will either be conquered or admit their mistake and re-pledge loyalty. In Thai politics, Princess Ubolratana cannot expect anything of the sort.
Thai Raksa Chart could argue that it was just giving its rivals a taste of their own medicine. Yet it could also be said that its controversial move brought the party a taste of its own medicine. 
Those are political problems. Legally, Thai Raksa Chart is staring at huge trouble, while strategically the entire political camp of which the party is just a part is facing a major setback. The King’s royal command rebuking the move as “highly inappropriate” was damning, and changed everything for “swing” parties’ decision-making process.
Her nomination was always fraught with strategic risk. Even if she had been able to continue as a prime minister candidate, the original idea of having Pheu Thai sweep constituency elections and Thai Raksa Chart gather a sizeable number of “losing” votes to claim House seats under the new proportional system could have gone disastrously wrong. 
Thanks to her widespread popularity, Thai Raksa Chart would have scored unwanted constituency victories at Pheu Thai’s expense. This would have upset a plan that required mathematical precision at every step of the way.
Apparently, Pheu Thai and Thai Raksa Chart don’t have to worry about that now. Fresh and urgent problems are presenting themselves. Some key figures have missed the electoral registration deadline. Pheu Thai, meanwhile, has fielded less than 250 constituency candidates, meaning much hope was being pinned on Thai Raksa Chart, whose future is now uncertain while morale must be low. The target of 376 seats looked very possible a few days ago; it seems a tall order now.
And how to explain things to Sudarat Keyuraphan, who was for a long time made to believe she was the alliance’s top pick for prime minister? More intriguing perhaps is how the alliance will explain its decision on the princess to hardcore red shirts. 
Though she relinquished her royal titles after marrying an American in 1972, Ubolratana has always been afforded the respect and even reverence afforded to a princess by the Thai populace. She has been well loved for her various charitable ventures, yet such status can be subjected to intense scrutiny by ideological members of the Pheu Thai alliance.
In a fairy-tale, a wandering princess has no problem befriending the villagers and other creatures of the forest. In the cut-throat world of Thai politics, blending in is a lot more difficult: for one thing, sincerity does not always work how it’s supposed to. A fairy-tale princess can bridge inequality and divisiveness; in the real word, what should be bridged can be widened when issues are spun, distorted or misinterpreted.
In the real world, another Thai princess often finds herself in the spotlight. Princess Ubolratana’s younger sister, Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn, once wrote that when she was a child, she made toffee which tasted so good that compliments came pouring in left and right. A caution against monetising it came from the Queen, however.
“I sold my toffee to my mother’s aides,” HRH Princess Sirindhorn wrote. “Everyone loved it, but Mum warned that you couldn’t just use your status to make people buy your stuff, unless it was meant for charity. Another thing was that it was an unfair investment, as all my ingredients were free – the sugar, milk and everything.”
Maybe that is too trivial to be a bedtime story. But both princesses have told us the same, valuable thing: Their lives are never easy.