THURSDAY, March 28, 2024
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Bangkok's take-away from Washington

Bangkok's take-away from Washington

Thailand should be grateful to the US regarding the latest Trafficking in Persons Report (TIP) because it helps to expose what are really inside the hearts and minds of Washington's policy-makers and how the world's most powerful country views others an

From now on Thailand has to be realistic and forthright when it comes to assess its relations with the US. They have already forgot the US response when Thailand faced with the economic crisis in July 1997. Apparently, the 183 year-old ties and other Thai “expedient” efforts which the US senior officials often alluded to and highly appreciative of have no bearings as they do not serve “immediate and core US interests” at this juncture.
Indeed, Thailand should be solely blamed as it does not a comprehensive strategy to engage with the US and the inability to forecast the US behavior. Problem is, Thailand and the US used to have common enemies but they have never been enemies. They were friends and on the same side—with the exception of voting at the United Nations with little less than 20 percent of similar votes. The two countries have never fought war. Unlike Vietnam, Malaysia and Myanmar, which know exactly how to rub shoulders with the Americans and extract concessions. They were enemies before and now they are friends so they do not take each other for granted. 
Look at all these exhibits, how the US has morphed over the decades. Just recently, President Barrack Obama hosted Vietnam’s Communist Party Chief Nguyen Phu Trong, a few days ahead of the release of TIP report. It was an amazing diplomatic feast given their past common histories. Vietnam decided to join the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), knowing full well it would be a tough call. Since it was a political decision, it would be interesting to follow what Hanoi would be willing to yield under the TPP and the ASEAN-led framework known as the Regional Economic Comprehensive Framework (RCEP), which is scheduled to be completed by the end of this year.
So was Malaysia, its decision to join the TPP negotiation was very wise one albeit Kuala Lumpur’s lack of confidence that it would be able to carry out the process to the very end due to domestic constraints. Just follow what the Asean chair has done with the Asean Economic Community’s action plans, one would immediately understand the politics behind this decision. Last week, Washington dutifully came to the rescue to ensure that Malaysia’s got the upgrade to Tier 2--Watch List to be eligible for the TPP signatory if the negotiation completes soon. 
Before it assumes the Asean chairmanship this year, Kuala Lumpur also went for the non-permanent seat the UN Security Council, which it serves as the president next year. Malaysia also knows that the TPP negotiation would augment its bargain power as the US wants more Asian friends to do the free trade frameworks. 
In case of Myanmar, the government also knows how to give-in and stand-firm against the US and the best timing to do so. Just examine Nayphidaw’s prevailing attitude towards the reform efforts since 2011, it has been systematically plotted and executed. That was the pathway the Myanmar’s leaders wanted to follow from the beginning.  So, the country is still on the Tier 2 Watch list eventhough it did not improve much on the TIP criteria, not to mention all the controversies associated with the Rohinya. Myanmar knows that the current US administration’s legacy in Asia rests on relations with Myanmar. So, Washington cannot slaughter its golden goose.
In case of Thailand, the Thai policy makers just wavered without any direction. Literally, just a few hours before the planned visit of US President Barrack Obama to Thailand for a brief stop on 18 November 2012, Thailand decided to enter negotiation with the TPP. At the time, Thailand was only interested in doing the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement. But the Americans chose to play along. After Obama left town, then, the Thais returned to their mai-pen-rai (never mind) mode—pull backed from the process. Bangkok wanted to make sure that Obama visited Bangkok by appearing enthusiastic about the TPP.
Under the former Thai leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, who had a good rapport with former US President George W Bush, both sides agreed to start a fast-track negotiation on free trade agreement. Bush wanted to reward Thaksin for helping with the anti-terrorism campaign and allowing the US aircrafts and logistic teams uninterrupted uses of its airbase in Utapao and rendition program. Thailand helped to arrest Hambali, the Al Quida leader in Asia in August 2003. Two months later, the two leaders agreed that the free trade negotiation would begin June 2004. After nearly two years of negotiation, it was called off.  
Fast forward to the present, never before has the TIP report produced such a black hole for the US foreign policy and its ties with friends. Previously, it was the annual report on human rights report. Since most of the Asian countries do not receive much US aid as before these days except the Philippines, trade sanction has become a more important instrument which explains why they have been politicized. 
Even Congressman Chris Smith, the father of the law that gave birth to the TIP reports was not impressed. Last week, he spoke in front of the US State Secretary, John Kerry, during an Iran hearing: “China convicted 35 traffickers, Malaysia 3, and Thailand 157—but only Thailand is Tier 3. What message does that send? When we engage in trafficking cronyism—giving a free pass to new friends and partners for reasons unrelated to the suffering of trafficking victims—US creditability is harmed, US leadership is undermined, and he trafficking victims are left helpless and alone.” 
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-Ocha was right when he said that we should not blame the US but ourselves. Thailand has to move on. On the human trafficking and slave labors, he indeed could have done a lot more under the super Measure 44, at least a few dozens more senior officials should be apprehended as many international human rights organizations have pointed out.
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