American-Asean RELATIONS a swirl of uncertainty, opportunity

Through the rebalancing, the US seeks to expand its network of alliances and friends for the common goal of security and economic prosperity for the Asia Pacific. While there are concerns that the America post – Obama may neglect Southeast Asia, the economic and security importance of the Asia Pacific could prolong US rebalancing beyond the current administration.

 

Asia Pivot

Asean member states have been receptive to the American rebalancing, with Malaysia notably a key global US partner in the Asia pivot. Ties between the two countries were upgraded to a “Comprehensive Partnership” in April 2014. Malaysia is now a member of the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a mega-free trade pact. Malaysia and the US are also working closely in the fight against the threat from Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

Other Asean countries including Vietnam, the Philippines and Singapore have also steered closer to the US. Vietnam also signed a Comprehensive Partnership with Washington that brings a framework for cooperation not only on economic and security issues, but also on culture, tourism and sports, among others.

Indeed, the Sunnylands summit delivered evidence of the comprehensive scope of US commitment to Southeast Asia. Delegates discussed issues such as good governance, sustainable development and climate change. They also agreed on a “US-Asean Connect” package, to provide technical knowledge to other Asean countries in preparation for their eventual entry into the TPP.

Washington will also establish economic centres in Singapore, Bangkok and Jakarta to improve coordination of US economic engagement in this region. Without explicitly naming China and the South China Sea, President Obama and Asean leaders tactfully called for restraint and observance of international law to resolve maritime disputes peacefully.

 

Reasons to be cheerful?

Nevertheless, there is uncertainty over whether the next US president will maintain the rebalance. There are fears, for example, that the TPP, which is the key component of US trade policy in the Asia Pacific, could be undermined by resistance in Congress. A number of prominent presidential candidates have also criticised the TPP and there is no guarantee that the next commander-in-chief would be as keen to engage Asean.

It is too premature to conclude that the US post-Obama would backtrack on the rebalancing strategy. Rhetoric being employed by the presidential candidates against the TPP is aimed at gaining political mileage. Similar grandstanding by presidential candidates in previous election campaigns eventually gave way to pragmatism after taking office. Indeed, when President Obama was still a senator, he too resorted to protectionist rhetoric during campaigns.

Furthermore, it is difficult for the US to ignore the more pertinent economic and security issues in the Asia Pacific and Southeast Asia. The Asia-Pacific has a key role in global economic growth and the TPP taps into this dynamism, which in turn would help drive US economic growth. The advent of the Asean Economic Community (AEC) earlier this year will also provide lucrative potential business opportunities for US corporations.

With the increasing threat of ISIS in Southeast Asia, it is in the interests of the US to work with Asean to tackle ISIS infiltration in the region. At a media interview during the summit, President Obama reportedly commended Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia as states representing “the best of moderate Islam” in Asean, with which the US seeks to cooperate in the fight against the ISIS threat.

The South China Sea disputes will continue to draw the attention of the US, as freedom of navigation and the security of lanes through the South China Sea is vital for the trade that’s crucial to the economic prosperity of both the Asia Pacific and the US. Thus, America is likely here to stay in Southeast Asia.

 

Impact of US-Asean Summit

The Sunnlyands summit shows that US commitment to this region is no longer confined primarily to traditional security issues. Through soft power, the US is increasingly engaging Asean on economic and non-traditional security related issues.

The summit could set the precedent for future American presidents to enshrine the event as an annual exchange. In addition, President Obama may be conveying the message to his successor that the US should maintain the rebalance.

Some analysts have suggested that the Obama administration has begun to appreciate Asean-style multilateralism. This is not surprising given that Obama’s foreign policy has focused on multilateral cooperation according to international norms. However, this may not be the case for the next US administration.

To help sustain US attention in Southeast Asia, Asean countries have to engage the US proactively on shared interests. Indeed, it is the shared goal of common prosperity that will secure the Asia Pivot’s survival in years to come.

 

DAVID HAN is a research analyst with the Malaysia Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.