SATURDAY, April 27, 2024
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America and Russia entering a new, colder war

America and Russia entering a new, colder war

History is repeating, but Southeast Asia must guard against becoming a battleground this time around

Brace for the storm. The mudslinging between leaders of the US and Russia will get worse in the months and years to come. 
Why? 
We are entering a new cold war. This time around, the superpowers are wiser. But with a weaker global economy and less money to spend on military hardware, they now prefer to stay at home and engage each other from behind screens. The soundtrack for our new age of information warfare is “click, click, click”.
Washington is accusing Russian leader Vladimir Putin of interfering in the upcoming presidential election. The allegation is more than just empty words. It represents a genuine belief that Moscow is behind a series of hacking attacks on Hillary Clinton’s Democratic National Committee and on election-related systems, such as voter databases inside the US, with the aim of discrediting American democracy and also influencing the election result. The US believes that organisations allied to Russia are lending a hand in this effort to weaken America and its influence overseas.
On the other side, Russia is convinced that the US has a longstanding plan to use civil society organisations to weaken Putin’s leadership and bolster the opposition. As a former KGB intelligence officer and then two-time president of Russia, Putin is well placed to pinpoint America’s intentions towards his country.
Russian authorities have successfully countered these sinister US plots – whether real or imagined. Opposition leaders or institutions inside the country that have sought to challenge Putin’s power have been handicapped or quashed without exception. 
That contrasts starkly with the picture in America, where Washington has manifestly failed to deal with Russian aggression, both overt and covert. 
Strategists and policymakers on each side have a very different way of countering their number one adversary. Russia’s way is undoubtedly more effective.
These days, Moscow has a powerful influence on political developments in the Middle East, especially when it comes to the current crisis in Syria. The manner in which Putin has chosen to engage America on the battlefield in Syria points to the direction this new, colder war will take. Russia knows that America’s weakness lies in its democratic nature. 
Public opinion and media reactions are the most potent weapons that Putin can use to promote his agenda. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is just a small example of this new trend. Meanwhile, the US is unable to counter in kind because the Russian system of governance shuts off public dissent.
Luckily, Russia does not command the same degree of influence in Asia. Its overarching power is still limited – unlike that of rising China and India. At the recent East Asia Summit in Vientiane, both international and regional media did not even bother to mention the presence of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. 
There’s no doubt that Russia remains an important player in Asia, which cannot be ignored. But as long as Moscow is not colliding with Washington over disputes in our region, we must consider ourselves lucky.
The much-reported tensions between America and China are nothing compared to the ongoing rivalry between the US and Russia, which is currently being played out with exchanges of heavy weapons in Aleppo. 
Since the cold war ended, Russia has been at a loss over how to best approach a Southeast Asia that has tilted towards the US and become more economically dynamic. 
What we cannot afford is for the kind of Russian influence we see in the Middle East to spread to our region. The consequences of Moscow gaining entry to the already fraught power play currently being waged in Southeast Asia would be potentially devastating.
It is important for Thailand and its neighbours to prevent outside powers from interfering with issues that can and should be settled within the region. This is more easily said than done, but Southeast Asian countries must themselves find the will and the actions necessary to resolving their own disputes. 

 

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