As globalisation burns, its leaders meet in freezing Davos

As you read this, thousands of business and government leaders are making their way to Switzerland – by plane, road, rail and even helicopter – for an annual meeting to discuss the world’s most pressing concerns.
They are braving snow and frigid cold – forecasts are for temperatures to dip to minus-17C – and a three-hour car ride from Zurich up to the small Alpine ski resort of Davos, for the conference organised by the World Economic Forum (WEF).
Hundreds of aides, academics and journalists, myself included, will be there to join in and follow their discussions tomorrow.
When these leaders met last January, there was much talk about relentless technological change. Minds were focused on developments in robotics, artificial intelligence, virtual reality and 3D printing.
Few, however, saw or spoke about the prospects of Brexit or the rise of Donald Trump. 
So “Davos Man” – as this elite group is sometimes derisively characterised – will have much pondering to do. For while it was right that they focused their sights on the trends that will shape the future, how did they not see the icebergs lying more immediately ahead, which now impede the once-seemingly inexorable path forward to further economic integration and progress?
While past discussions had focused on the economic and social disruptions to come, Davos delegates will now have to recognise that the economy they envisioned is unfolding in a range of sectors, much sooner than most imagined, and worse, a wider Disruption 2.0 is under way, amid major shocks to the underlying global operating system that the WEF has long championed.
The consensus on the virtues of globalisation, the benefits of immigration and gains from free trade is now under grave threat. Politicians have tapped into latent anxieties, alienation and anger felt by electorates in countries, from the United Kingdom to the United States and elsewhere. Their cries will reverberate around the Swiss Alps this week.
Little wonder then that the WEF has made “responsive and responsible leadership” the theme for this year’s discussions.
Its founder and executive chairman, Professor Klaus Schwab summed this up: “Leaders have to be responsive and responsible; they must understand that we are living in a world marked by uncertainty, volatility and deep transformational changes. Many people are living in precarious situations and searching for identity and meaning in a fast-changing world...
“There cannot just be a return to basics! There has to be a recognition that we are in unmapped territory, which places the status quo, and by extension leaders themselves, into question.”
His clarion call will ring louder in the face of recent developments, as well as several events playing out this week, as the Davos deliberations unfold.
These include the keynote speech to be delivered today by Chinese President Xi Jinping, making his Davos debut. His aides say he will make a pitch for “inclusive globalisation” and warn that populist pressures could lead to “war and poverty”. He will assert China’s readiness to play a bigger role on the world stage.
His statements will be welcomed by those who have been calling on Beijing to step up and pitch in to support the rules-based system of international governance, not least when it is being challenged on so many fronts. But there will also be concerns at how China is doing so at a time when others, like the US and Britain, seem to be ceding leadership and influence, wittingly or otherwise.
In a similar vein, anxieties also loom about Russia’s increasingly assured and assertive President Vladimir Putin holding heightened sway in Europe, the Middle East and even Asia.
And then there is the incoming President Trump, who will be sworn in on Friday.
Globalisation’s chief advocates will watch with much irony, and not without trepidation, as one of their harshest critics takes the reins in the very country that has done the most to promote the present economic and political order from which they – and yes, we – have all gained.
The Trump administration faces as many challenges as it poses. Questions remain over its alleged links to Russia and whether it will operate at its “kompromat” behest, as well as doubts about the probity of the Trump clan’s business dealings. Key Trump picks for the top jobs in economic, trade and foreign affairs have also spoken darkly about being at odds with China and Russia over trade and strategic issues.
Add to this mix uncertainties over upcoming elections in Germany, France, and possibly Italy, not to mention Malaysia closer to home, and the propensity for political volatility mounts.
Underlying these more immediate geopolitical developments, however, remain the deeper and more relentless concerns about rising income inequalities and unemployment in societies around the world. Like it or not, these will have to be dealt with – the WEF has flagged the need for faster and more inclusive economic growth – regardless of how the political events mentioned before play out.
Delegates might heed the wise words of Winston Churchill: “The farther backwards you look, the farther forwards you can see.”
History reminds us that Russian regimes in the 1960s had similarly sought to influence American elections. In a curious way, we have been here before, and might draw some lessons from the past as we find our way forward.
This is what a panel of eminent historians will attempt to do today in a session titled “Back to the Future: Lessons from the 20th Century for the 21st, which I will have the pleasure of moderating tonight.
 Also on the panel will be US economist Nouriel Roubini, who likens events of today to the troubling times in the 1920s and 1930s: “As in the 1930s, when protectionist and isolationist US policies hampered global economic growth and trade, and created the conditions for rising revisionist powers to start a world war, similar policy impulses could set the stage for new powers to challenge and undermine the American-led international order. An isolationist Trump administration may see the wide oceans to its east and west, and think that increasingly ambitious powers such as Russia, China and Iran pose no direct threat to the homeland.
“The historical record is clear: Protectionism, isolationism, and ‘America first’ policies are a recipe for economic and military disaster.”
So, amid the freezing cold, the Davos discussions this year will be infused with urgency to put right the many global fires that are raging or might yet be unleashed, if indeed the delegates who come to the WEF are to deliver on its lofty commitment to “improving the state of the world”.