Meagre assurances follow an unfavourable ‘coup rating’

Everyone knows that another coup this year would be a major setback. What is less agreed on is the possibility or likelihood of it happening. The Washington Post has reported that Thailand sits atop a “coup-prediction index”, ranking second only to the African nation of Burundi when it comes to chances that a military power seizure will occur this year. The Thai military, of course, shrugged at the report, with Defence Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan saying it was up to the politicians, not soldiers, whether the return to a civil rule will happen on schedule.
There is an underlying issue that neither the Washington Post nor Prawit addressed. If another coup is staged this year, it doesn’t have to be warranted by a potentially violent political impasse. Many people fear that the next coup could be intended solely to prolong the military’s political influence after it fades in the wake of a general election.
Perhaps that is what the foreign analysts are thinking. Thai politicians know full well there is little they can do when it comes to the election timeframe. 
Citizens were supposed to go to the polls this year, but dire national developments have clouded the schedule. Even if the election is to take place next year instead of this, however, the politicians are unlikely to cook up any chaos. Everyone is aware that would be a sure pretext for another coup, which would only play into the military’s hands.
It is therefore widely expected that the politicians will behave themselves. There are two key factors backing this analysis. 
The first is the mourning period for His Majesty King Bhumibol, which demands solemn observation across the country. The second is the fear of providing another excuse for a coup that could further delay the return to civil rule.
But a degree of unpredictability remains, and it largely has to do with the behaviour of the military itself. An international transparency index ranks Thailand poorly despite military-backed Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s much-vaunted campaign against corruption. 
Prayut has succeeded in keeping his political rivals quiet and his government has punished quite a few high-profile figures embroiled in corruption scandals, but faith in his administration hinges heavily on whether it can walk the talk.
In many ways the current situation is in the military’s favour. Anti-military protests might happen, but their organisers would have to pull their punches, realising that a full-scale campaign could backfire and delay the election. Disgruntled silence, meanwhile, can give the military false assurance that everything it’s done is acceptable, including its handling of the problems that weaken Thailand’s grade on the transparency scale.
Challenging the theory that politicians will behave is the apprehension that two weighty issues about to climax this year could shatter the country’s fragile peace and trigger renewed turbulence. 
The court trial regarding the rice price-pledging scheme, in which former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra is a key suspect, could deliver a body blow to her Pheu Thai Party, in which case its members are unlikely to sit still. Then there is the potentially explosive legal action pressing the controversial but massive and politically connected Dhammakaya Buddhist sect against the ropes.
So the Washington Post was perhaps not being overly sensationalistic in its cautionary report, and Prawit – or the military as a whole – could have provided a more convincing argument that there will be no coup this year. Like it or not, Thailand’s journey back to normalcy will be more difficult this year. Any further setback would certainly be far more serious than previous ones.