THURSDAY, March 28, 2024
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Political misery at odds with economic ‘Misery Index’

Political misery at odds with economic ‘Misery Index’

Rare international accolade muddied by pervasive divide

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is pleased, while his political opponents are stunned. And the author of the “Misery Index”, which dubs Thailand the least miserable nation when it comes to inflation and unemployment, appears not so sure about the conclusion.
Thailand’s political divide means that their country being ranked the least miserable country economically is not something all Thais are proud of. To add to that, Bloomberg has announced its latest Misery Index with a note that Thai authorities’ methods of tallying unemployment is probably questionable.
Not that the interim Thai government cares, though. The announcement, which puts Thailand above the likes of Switzerland and Singapore, which came second and third best respectively, has arrived at a time when Prayut is vying for return to political power amid doubts over his ability to steer the economy.
There has been a limited sense of pride in Thailand, as the economy is deemed to be Prayut’s weak spot by political rivals. “Enough with the bad economy and your empty wallets”, read one of the election banners of Pheu Thai Party, Prayut’s main political foe. Pheu Thai came second in the recent general election in terms of popular vote, whereas the party that supports the PM was on top. However, Pheu Thai emerged from the election with the most number of MPs.
The Bloomberg index shocked Pheu Thai, but drew noisy celebrations from the interim government’s camp. The interim government said Prayut gave importance to inflation and unemployment, and said that he would pursue the agenda on “other issues” like the drug problem, crime and corruption if he remains at the helm.
Pheu Thai’s scepticism was backed more or less by Bloomberg’s own doubts. A Bloomberg report practically said the index was a result of work on figures provided primarily by the countries concerned. Effectively, Bloomberg was saying that it had no control over most of the data. In the process, the index creator did not give Thailand the praise that the Thai government would say it deserves.
“Thailand again claimed the title of the least miserable economy, though the government’s unique way of tallying unemployment makes it less noteworthy than Switzerland’s improvement to second [least miserable] and Singapore managing to stay in the bottom three,” the Bloomberg report said. The index is calculated as the sum of a country’s inflation and unemployment rates. The index compares the median estimate of economists’ forecasts for each country’s rates in 2019 from 2018’s published data. Forecasts are as of April 11.
According to the Bloomberg report, Venezuela and a handful of others in the “most miserable” camp are fighting high inflation alongside lofty jobless rates. Following Venezuela were Argentina, South Africa, Turkey and Greece.
A “different challenge” for other countries is how to mix quiet inflation and lower unemployment with good economic measures that could negatively affect the two. The Bloomberg “Misery Index” relies mainly on the age-old concept that low inflation and unemployment generally illustrate how good a resident should feel. But even the Bloomberg report admitted that, sometimes, a low tally could be misleading in either category. For example, low prices can signal poor demand, and too-low joblessness shackles workers who want to switch to better jobs.
After managing to regroup, Prayut’s rivals will state that there is more to do with a good or bad economy. However, the truth of what should be done and how “proud” Thais should be has been lost – not in sincere economic analyses but in filthy politicisation that dominates Thailand’s divide.

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