Chongqing drama won't rock the boat in Beijing

In recent weeks, elite Chinese politics has been more Hollywood than, well, elite Chinese politics.

The stunning story of Chongqing deputy mayor Wang Lijun’s 340-kilometre drive from Chongqing, a mid-western municipality, to the American consulate in Chengdu while his boss sent armed police in hot pursuit was a sharp and sensational break from the usual humdrum script of stuffy Chinese leaders.

Most of the world will probably never find out what actually happened, in the same way China watchers remain perplexed about the mysterious plane crash which killed Lin Biao in 1971.

Of course, the impact of Wang’s attempted defection could hardly be compared to Lin’s, who was allegedly making a quick dash to the Soviet Union.

Wang is a provincial-level official who is not even in the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 371-strong central committee. Lin was Chairman Mao Zedong’s anointed successor.

But just as conspiracy theories, rumours and gossip abound over the Lin Biao Incident, the same can be expected with the Wang Lijun case.

For while Wang has at best a cameo role in the epic show that is elite Chinese politics, his erstwhile superior Bo Xilai is a prominent Politburo leading man with open and strong ambitions.

Their dramatic split just months before the 18th Party Congress, a once-in-a-decade political transition, could have serious repercussions on the centre stage of Beijing.

As it is, the rumour mill has been as creative as outrageous since Wang’s February 6 visit to the United States consulate. He has since left and is believed to be under the charge of security officials in the Chinese capital.

When Bo visited south-western Yunnan province just days after the incident, there was speculation that he could be seeking military support for an attempted coup. The reasoning was that his father, former Long March leader Bo Yibo, used to lead troops in the region.

When news of his meeting with visiting Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper appeared on Chongqing newspapers two days late, the gossip went that Bo was in trouble.

In truth, Chongqing reporters have said that it is not uncommon for Bo’s news to appear two days late. The cautious leader likes to vet news before approving its publication.

That is not all. Earlier this week, there were strong rumours that Bo had resigned from the Politburo, a precursor to being purged. The Chongqing authorities rubbished it.

Most of these rumours came from overseas, with Hong Kong a hotbed of Sino-style Kremlinology. And given the opaque world of Zhongnanhai, the CCP leadership compound, it is understandable that some observers might opt for the fanciful and dramatic explanations.

Some of the talk may very well even be true. But the likelihood is slim. Bo’s fate is unlikely to be a Mao-style crackdown.

Purging him now is risky, embarrassing and unnecessary.

There is a potential backlash from any attempt to engineer his downfall this year. First, it risks alienating the still-influential leftist camp which has claimed Bo as its spiritual leader since he embarked on his Mao revival strategy in Chongqing.

Second, taking down a high-profile politician like Bo is a high-stakes gamble which could spiral out of control. The odds are especially volatile just months before the handover.

One wonders how many of the current top CCP leadership, known to be more cautious than cavalier, would dare to spin this roulette wheel.

The last open split among elite leaders came during the 1989 Tiananmen incident which nearly caused a collapse of the CCP regime. Lessons have been learnt.

To repudiate Bo would also be embarrassing to the party. While some may sniff at his showman moves to promote Mao and crack down on triads, these moves are in line with the CCP’s ideology and policies. Bo has not done anything counter to the mainstream narrative of the CCP.

That is why six of the nine members of the elite Politburo Standing Committee, including heir apparent Xi Jinping, have openly endorsed Bo’s work.

Getting rid of the Chongqing boss would be quite a slight for this very powerful sextet, even if it may cheer the remaining trio – President Hu Jintao, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and Vice-Premier Li Keqiang.

Sacking Bo would be seen as critical if his rivals regard him as a strong contender for promotion to the Standing Committee – a seat he was believed to be eyeing.

But in the aftermath of the Wang incident, Bo’s threat has been largely blunted, according to most analysts. With that much controversy surrounding him, the 62-year-old will find it hard to make the ascent – a clear blow to his ambitions.

He would be seen as too much of a wild card and a potentially destabilising force, an image reinforced not only by the scandal but also by his penchant for demagoguery in recent years.

When the Chinese leaders use one of their favourite stock phrases of “stability over all else”, it is a principle they apply not only to the society, but also to themselves.

It is in the interests of the leaders and their factions to let Bo down gently, quietly phasing him out for retirement or placing him in a ceremonial job at the national consultative advisory body or the rubber-stamp legislature, while remaining in the Politburo.

After all, there is only that much excitement elite Chinese politics can take.

 

Timeline of events

February 2:  Wang Lijun is abruptly demoted from his post as Chongqing police commissioner and deputy mayor by his boss, Chongqing Party Chief Bo Xilai. Bo, an ambitious member of the CCP Politburo, is said to have learned that Wang was about to expose him for corruption and embezzlement, and ordered the demotion along with the arrest of several individuals close to Wang.

February 6: Wang drives to the US consulate in Chengdu, pursued by Chongqing armed police, who reportedly surround the consulate. US consular officials refuse to comment on the content of their meeting with Wang, though observers speculate that he may have been seeking political asylum, or at minimum was seeking to extricate himself from the reach of Bo Xilai. Following his departure from the consulate, Wang is seized by security agents.

February 9: Several overseas Chinese-language websites post an open letter allegedly written by Wang, accusing Politburo member Bo of corruption and harboring criminal connections and calling him “the greatest gangster in China”.