Thai reaction to Trump’s Asia policy: Cautiously confused

On closer scrutiny, the general response might be traditionally described as “cautiously optimistic”  – but deep down the real attitude is probably “cautiously confused”. Nobody, after all, knows exactly where the US president-elect stands on Asia, not to mention the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – or Thailand for that matter.
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said what was expected of him: The Thai government was ready to work with the new US administration, and considering the more than 180-year relationship between the two countries, any rebalancing on either side shouldn’t have serious negative impacts on ties.
Uncertainly hangs over trade and investment, which depend on how the implementation of Trump’s “America First” policy affects Thailand’s exports to the US, which takes 11 per cent of our total exports and currently alternates with China as our biggest export market.
Thailand, like other Asean members, has every reason to watch for moves towards protectionist trade policy under Trump, given his repeated accusations that major Asian countries such as China and Japan are taking advantage of America in trade and investment.
But there are those who also foresee a “less meddlesome” foreign policy from Washington, especially on the issues of human rights, democracy and good governance. Former Premier and Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said the Trump administration could be in some ways “positive” for Thailand and other Asian countries since the new American leader may be less inclined to adhere to Obama’s approach towards the region.
Abhisit said: “Thai politics in the eyes of the Western world is full of military coups and protests. I think Trump won’t follow that line of thinking. He may want to boost bilateral ties without bothering about Thai politics.”
It will be interesting to see whether Trump re-examines Obama’s much-heralded “Pivot to Asia” policy, and also whether bilateral and regional security cooperation, including the annual Thailand-based “Cobra Gold” exercise, is maintained or reviewed for change.
Ankit Panda, associate editor at international-news website The Diplomat, writes that US partnerships and alliances in the region, including the treaty alliance with the Philippines, would fray under President Trump.
He also predicts that normative objectives such as democracy promotion and support for international law, including freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, would drop precipitously down the list of US priorities in the region. The Trans-Pacific Partnership – the bellwether for US commercial interests in the broader East Asian region – would fail. Trump, with his opposition to free trade, has promised to enact protectionist tariffs.
Political analysts generally agree that if Washington starts to look inward economically, Southeast Asian states will naturally be drawn into China’s orbit. Thailand will inevitably have to take into account all aspects of a new US “rebalancing” that will be critical in shaping our role in the new “world order”.
In an article published in Foreign Policy on November 7, two of Trump’s advisers, Alexander Gray and Peter Navarro, framed Trump’s Asia policy as a more self-interested approach to economics and a stronger military – almost entirely focusing on China’s rising assertiveness and Beijing overplaying its hand in the region.
The advisers also blamed the Obama administration for failing to respond to Chinese gains in the South China Sea and with America’s twin Southeast Asian allies, Thailand and the Philippines. The tone of the article was far more hawkish than the US-China policy of recent years.
How Trump deals with Asean will hinge on his stance towards regional institutions in Asia – and how the new US administration handles multilateral engagements in the global landscape.
Trump’s anti-multilateral stand stood out during his campaign speeches. A day after President Obama told the UN in September that giving up some freedom of action in order to adhere to international rules was ultimately a good investment for the US that would enhance security, Trump repeated that, unlike the “corrupt political establishment”, which embraced globalism for self-serving reasons, he would focus on what was best for the United States.
“I am not running to be president of the world,” Trump said, adding: “I am running to be president of the United States, and that’s what we’re going to take care of.”
Will Trump’s economic policy towards Asia, apart from tearing up Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), become “isolationist”?
Despite his heated and uncompromising rhetoric during the campaign, the president-elect may not necessarily be against trade deals.
One of his advisers was quoted by Nikkei Asian Review during a recent visit to Japan as saying that although Trump did believe in free trade, he thought bilateral deals were better than multilateral blocs because “we have opportunities to cut a better deal”.
Trump has already taken a major step back from his fierce campaign pledges. Less than 48 hours after he won the election, the president-elect told the Wall Street Journal that he might merely “amend” Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act) rather than repeal it – perhaps his biggest campaign promise.
Thailand might take comfort, after all, in the fact that President Trump might not be as confusing and scary to old allies as Candidate Trump.
Questioned about the president-elect’s Asia policy as the election results were announced, a Trump adviser in Washington responded:
“Let me tell you what I have told the diplomats who have asked the same question: We are serious about what we said, of course. But we are also flexible in how to do things too.”
But then, Candidate Trump famously declared during the early days of his campaign that one of his strong points was “unpredictability”.