Why the Himalayan ‘Third Pole’ faces rising extreme weather risks
The Himalayas face rising flood risks as warming accelerates glacier melt, expands unstable lakes and threatens communities across the Third Pole.
- The Himalayan ‘Third Pole’, a crucial water source for 1.9 billion people, is increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather as rising global temperatures accelerate glacier loss.
- A major risk is the formation of unstable glacial lakes, which can cause catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that release powerful torrents of water, mud and debris.
- A recent deadly flood in Nepal and Tibet, triggered by a glacier collapse, has highlighted the immediate dangers, with experts warning the risk of such events could triple.
- Scientific analysis suggests that if sharp temperature rises continue, up to 80% of glaciers across the Himalayas could disappear by 2100, intensifying the threat.
The Himalayas and surrounding high mountain regions are known as the ‘Third Pole’ because they hold the world’s third-largest store of ice and snow after the Arctic and Antarctica.
The vast mountain system also serves as Asia’s ‘water tower’, feeding major rivers and providing water that supports the lives and livelihoods of more than 1.9 billion people across the continent.
But this crucial frozen reservoir is becoming increasingly vulnerable as global temperatures rise. Accelerating glacier loss is putting fragile mountain ecosystems under growing pressure, threatening wildlife habitats and creating wider risks for local communities, livelihoods, food supplies and water security.
Among the most serious dangers are glacier-related floods, including glacial lake outburst floods, or GLOFs. These occur when water stored behind ice, rock or other natural barriers suddenly breaks through, releasing powerful torrents capable of carrying mud, boulders and debris through mountain valleys.
The catastrophic flooding and landslides that struck Nepal and the Tibetan region of China on August 26 have brought renewed attention to the dangers posed by a rapidly changing Himalayan environment. The disaster was triggered by a glacier collapse, sending rock, ice, mud and debris through mountain river systems and devastating communities downstream.
Environmental experts have warned that such disasters highlight risks that could become more severe as Himalayan glaciers continue to retreat.
When glaciers become potential ‘time bombs’
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has warned of a growing threat from unstable glacial lakes across the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, which stretches across eight countries from Afghanistan to Myanmar.
More than 25,000 glacial lakes have been identified across the region, with more than 200 considered at high risk of breaching and sending floodwaters into communities below.
The risk of glacial lake outburst floods across the Hindu Kush Himalaya could eventually rise to three times its current level, according to ICIMOD assessments.
Scientific analysis has also warned that, if global temperatures continue to rise sharply, up to 80% of glaciers across the eastern and western Himalayas could disappear by 2100.
The eastern Himalayas are considered particularly vulnerable, with risks associated with rapid melting and glacier instability expected to intensify around the middle of the century.
Nepal resumes flood rescue, seeks technical help and billions of dollars
Search and rescue operations resumed in Nepal on Saturday after rain and fog forced a temporary suspension, as authorities continued searching for nearly 3,000 people missing following the devastating flood.
At least 669 people have been killed in Nepal and another seven in Tibet after the glacier collapse on Wednesday sent a torrent of rock, ice, mud and debris through mountain rivers, sweeping away buildings, bridges and power stations.
Nearly 2,426 people remain missing in Nepal, while another 554 are unaccounted for in Tibet’s Gyirong County. The missing include at least 540 foreign nationals, many of them Hindu pilgrims from India.
Rescue work had also been suspended on Friday after a lake created across the Nepal-China border following the disaster began overflowing into Nepal’s Lhende Khola and Trishuli rivers.
By Saturday, the immediate danger had eased and parts of the lake bed had become visible. Chinese authorities and state broadcaster CCTV reported that satellite images showed water gradually draining from the lake, reducing its size.
Nepal is monitoring two lakes upstream from the flood-hit area. An official warned that the danger of further flooding would remain until both had completely drained.
Three days after the disaster, authorities reported that some recovered bodies had decomposed to the point that they could no longer be visually identified.
The Chitwan district administration announced that DNA samples would be collected before unidentified bodies were buried following the required legal procedures, citing health concerns and the risk of disease outbreaks.
Families await news of the missing
Families searching for missing relatives gathered outside Maharajgunj Medical Campus in Kathmandu, where some bodies had been taken. Relatives tried to identify loved ones from photographs displayed on gates and boundary walls.
Families overseas were also awaiting news. Malaysia reported 91 of its citizens as ‘uncontactable’ across Nepal and Tibet, while India’s Ministry of External Affairs reported that 275 Indian nationals remained missing.
Manivannan Rethinam, a representative for some of the Malaysian families, urged the country’s foreign ministry to establish a clearer communication channel to provide faster updates, describing the lack of information as ‘profoundly painful’ for relatives awaiting news.
Survivors, meanwhile, are confronting the loss of homes and livelihoods.
Saraswati Ghale, 43, whose home was destroyed, recalled scrambling uphill as the flood arrived and the ground shook ‘like there was an earthquake’.
“I don’t have anything (left) ... I am saved but who knows how things will pan out,” she told Reuters.
Nepal has also appealed for specialist international assistance as it assesses the enormous cost of recovery. Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle told Reuters that the government’s preliminary estimate put reconstruction costs at between $4 billion and $5 billion.
“This is just an estimate. Loss and damage is being assessed,” he added.
Foreign experts join rescue and recovery efforts
Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal outlined several areas where Nepal requires technical support, including rescuing people trapped in tunnels, restoring transport and communications after bridges were destroyed, identifying bodies, conducting DNA testing and providing facilities for longer-term body storage.
A team of Indian tunnel specialists arrived in Nepal on Saturday. China also dispatched five tunnel experts, with another four expected to join them, according to Xinhua.
India has delivered three flights carrying 60 tonnes of emergency supplies, including food, medicines and blankets. It has also offered disaster-response personnel, prefabricated bridges and technical teams to help reconnect affected areas.
Meanwhile, Chinese rescuers are searching for more than 500 people still missing following the flood.
Teams reached the badly damaged Gyirong border crossing complex on Friday, using ropes to navigate forests and cliffs after roads were destroyed.
More than 50 rescuers searched through boulders, mud and wreckage in rainy conditions on Saturday morning, calling out for survivors and looking for signs of life, according to CCTV.
Surveillance footage from the border crossing showed torrents of water and debris engulfing buildings as people attempted to escape.
The scale of the disaster has again highlighted the exposure of Himalayan communities to glacier-related hazards, as rising temperatures reshape a frozen region that supplies water to nearly two billion people across Asia.
