Export growth to sink below 10%

“The ‘New Thailand’ model does not have any specific plan to boost the export sector. Government agencies should quickly come out with a specific plans to restore exports as soon as possible,” a source from a processed-foods exporter said yesterday.
 

The Commerce Ministry predicts that export growth will fall below 10 per cent next year because of the severe flooding, which has curtailed production. The Bank of Thailand has reduced its export-growth forecast for this year from 22.4 per cent to about 20 per cent. Thailand faced its lowest export growth of 4.56 per cent in 2002.
 

The source said exporters had not seen any plans from the government to help promote exports next year, only reactions to daily problems.
 

Exporters want the government to ensure that affected factories will have workers returning to them, as many had to relocate to other plants or go back to their home towns when operations were suspended.
 

They want the government to accelerate the waiving of duties on machinery imports, facilitate cargo transport, help lower shipping fees and provide soft loans with flexible conditions to ensure business survival, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises.
 

It should facilitate the import of raw materials and semi-processed goods, as some industries such as processed food are facing shortages of ingredients to support their manufacturing.
Because of the impact of the flooding on manufacturers, in particular for automobile and parts, electronics and electrical appliances, and processed food, which are major exports, shipments abroad next year could pick up only by a single digit.
 

Commerce Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong has said he expects exports to expand by at least 15 per cent next year, after this year’s jump of 15-20 per cent to US$230 billion (Bt7.1 trillion). However, exporters have voiced concern that exports next year will miss the target. The source said that after the flood waters have gone, each industry would spend at least a month and as may as six on rehabilitation. Exports would recover slowly in the first half of next year.
Anurat Khokasai, chief marketing and operating officer of Prantalay Marketing, said the flood was expected to diminish by the end of this month, so the firm had accelerated processing food products for shipment in December.
 

There is high risk that exports will face more difficulties in the middle of this month. The company has moved some inventory to other areas that are safe from flooding to ensure that its business runs smoothly for the rest of the year, he said.
 

However, if the flood does not recede within one month, supplies of processed foods and some frozen seafood will be tight, because some plants will run out of raw materials.
Prantalay is also concerned about flooding in the South late this month, which could destroy many shrimp hatcheries.