Fewer people to take part in Loy Krathong as they trim sails amid crisis

The devastating floods are expected to cost between Bt700 billion and Bt1 trillion in damaged assets, and between Bt350 billion and Bt450 billion in terms of lost business opportunities and economic value.

According to a poll conducted by the Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) among 1,224 respondents throughout the Kingdom from November 1 to 5, the number of people definitely intending to join the Loy Krathong celebrations has dropped to 48.9 per cent, from 52.7 per cent last year. 

Last year’s figure was a sharp decrease from 2009, when 75.3 per cent of the population participated.

Centre director Thanavath Phonvichai yesterday said the average expenditure by consumers during this year’s Loy Krathong festival was expected to fall to Bt1,225, from Bt1,391 last year.

However, those directly affected by the flooding will spend only Bt944 on the festival.

Some 42.7 per cent of respondents said they had been significantly affected by the floods, said Sauwanee Thairungroj, vice president for research at the UTCC.

About 37.3 per cent expect the flooding will last for 16 to 30 days, while 24.2 per cent expect the duration to be between 31 and 45 days. About 11.8 per cent predict the crisis will continue for 46 to 60 days.

Of those yet to be affected by the floods, 47.3 per cent expect to be and 48.3 per cent have prepared themselves by stocking up on essential goods, such as instant noodles (35.5 per cent), dry foods (40.2 per cent) and drinking water (59.8 per cent).

According to the poll, 44.2 per cent of respondents said their stress levels had seriously increased as a result of the flooding, while 36.7 per cent said their savings had declined significantly. 

Some 35.4 per cent of the respondents said they were facing difficulties in buying necessities, and 28.5 per cent said they had difficulties with transport and communicating with others. 

 

Impact

About 59.3 per cent said the massive flooding would have an impact on the economy in their own province, while 64.2 per cent believed the crisis would impact the national economy. 

Forty-six per cent and 41 per cent, respectively, expect the crisis will negatively affect their work and income, while 48.6 per cent believe the floods will damage their assets.

 The poll also revealed that 48.5 per cent of respondents said they would be able to live without any income for two months during the crisis, while 29.5 per cent said they could survive for one month without income and 21.4 per cent for three months.

About 34.8 per cent said they would take out new financial-institution loans or borrow from other sources if they were unable to cover expenditure during the floods, while 29.8 per cent would use their savings and 21.2 per cent would sell or pawn valuable assets. 

“We are highly concerned about a significant increase in informal loans and borrowing during the flooding period as many victims, especially lower-income people, have no assets to guarantee loans from formal financial institutions,” Sauwanee said.

 “The government should have microfinance measures to help this group of grass-rooters.” 

Poll respondents also urged the government to launch a compensation package to assist flood victims who have lost their place of work, home or other assets. 

Handouts of food and drinking water can be accessed by those people hit by the floods, but the government should also solve the problem of higher prices and shortages of essential products, respondents said.