IATA calls for strong policy-making

However, said Tony Tyler, IATA’s director-general and chief executive officer, the expected growth in travel in this region will require careful planning and strong policy-making.

On Thursday, a survey by the Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce predicted that Tuesday’s explosions would lead to a drop in tourist numbers by 100,000-200,000 and the country would lose Bt20 billion in tourism revenue in the current first quarter. If similar incidents follow, the impact on tourism will be even more severe.

By 2015, however, Tyler estimated that 37 per cent of air passengers worldwide would travel on routes to, from or within the Asia-Pacific region, compared with 29 per cent for Europe and North America, a decline from 31 per cent in 2010. As a result, the total number of people travelling by air in 2015 is expected to exceed 3.55 billion. That would be 877 million more than in 2010, and it means this region will be driving global growth. Of the forecast 2015 total, in China alone 212 million people will travel by air. Annually in China, the number of air trips per person is 0.2, against 0.1 for Indians. The United States records 1.8 trips per person per year and Germany one trip. 

“This is all good news for Thailand … a great tourism and business destination,” Tyler said. “But of course, aviation does not just happen. It needs a strong and coordinated policy framework to prepare to handle growth successfully.” 

However, 2012 will be a challenging year for airlines. He predicted that the industry would see just US$3.5 billion (Bt107 billion) profit on anticipated revenue of more than $600 billion. That is an unimpressive margin of only 0.6 per cent. 

“If Europe cannot solve its sovereign debt crisis and the continent falls into deep recession, then the industry will most certainly fall into losses,” he said. 

Before arriving in Thailand, Tyler attended the Singapore Airshow Aviation Leadership Summit. He had a chance to talk to participants from countries including Thailand. He stressed that the aviation industry was a key contributor to national economies. In Singapore, for example, it provides 119,000 jobs and 5.4 per cent of gross domestic product. In India, it creates 1.7 million jobs and 0.5 per cent of GDP.

In Thailand, it contributes 1.5 per cent of GDP and 393,000 jobs, with another 1.8 million jobs through the tourism supported by aviation. He urged the government to put the right policies in place to reap the full benefits that aviation can bring as a result of the growth in this region.

Among these policies, he called for the government to promote one airport, not two, to strengthen Thailand’s position as an aviation hub in the region. 

Tyler also urged the Thai government to promote biofuels for airlines. This would not only reduce aviation’s carbon footprint, it would be a boon for the economy.