Tensions could push oil past $180/barrel

Manoon Siriwan, president of Business Management Consultant, said yesterday that the global oil price could hit $180-$190 per barrel in the worst-case scenario of Israel attacking Iran.

However, that scenario is only a distant possibility, as tension has not yet peaked. Manoon said the global price would likely be volatile as Western countries, Japan and South Korea have banned oil imports from Iran.

"The price in the world market could reach $130 per barrel soon." Manoon noted that if tensions did not rise further, the price should swing back to $110 per barrel in the short term as China and India will continue to import fuel from the Middle Eastern country while it is isolated by the West.

China is Iran’s largest crude-oil importer, accounting for 22 per cent of Iran’s annual oil exports. Manoon said the sanctions would have only an indirect impact on Thailand, as it does not import oil from Iran.

Meanwhile, Pailin Chuchotta-worn, president and chief executive officer of PTT, anticipates that the global oil price will soon reach $110 a barrel because of the psychological impact of the conflict with Iran led by the United States.

However, the price should not rise unduly, as Saudi Arabia recently announced that it would increase its production and supply to the world market, Pailin said.

In addition, while speaking at a CEO Luncheon Talk on "World Economic Forum and the New Energy Architecture", Pailin said Thailand needed to focus more on alternative energy, mainly derived from algae, to ensure sustainable supply as fossil-fuel stocks are depleting.

He reiterated that Thailand would have low capability to build a nuclear plant as it needed long-term development and stringent protection measures. For instance, Japan, which faced a serious earthquake last year, will become a nuclear-free country in the near future.

In addition to balancing limited supply and rising energy consumption globally, Pailin said that both consumers and producers should realise their rights and duties and be responsible.

While being fully responsible to society, he said the world’s leading energy producers had vowed to aspire to secure global access to energy to meet the needs of the growing world population. Energy producers are also committed to producing and delivering energy to customers with minimum impact on the environment, and help drive global economic growth.