Shippers may cut 3% export growth goal
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Decision awaits review of July figures
The Thai National Shippers’ Council has maintained its export-growth forecast for the year at 3 per cent, while indicating that it might, however, decide to lower it after reviewing this month’s performance.
Export volume in June was disappointing, contracting by 3.38 per cent year on year to US$19.09 billion (Bt596.7 billion) with only three industrial sectors – petrochemicals (24.25 per cent), jewellery (36.51 per cent) and electronics (1.54 per cent) – showing growth.
In the first six months, the Kingdom’s export growth came in at a mere 0.95 per cent to $133.3 billion, because of the baht’s strength, a global economic slowdown and more limited Thai export competitiveness.
Nopporn Thepsithar, TNSC chairman, yesterday targeted full-year export growth to China at 2 per cent, worth $27.4 billion in total and lower than last year’s 2.4-per-cent expansion.
In the first half, exports to China contracted by 3.6 per cent, with a value of $12.92 billion.
There was a sharp decline of 16 per cent in export volume in May and June, with the most affected products being cassava, wood and rubber, as they relied on the Chinese market to the tune of 53 per cent, 48 per cent and 41 per cent respectively of their total exports last year.
To achieve the TNSC’s overall 3-per-cent target for the year, export volume to China in the second half has to reach $14.47 billion, representing an annual rise of 12 per cent, he said.
Ratidanai Hoonsawat, head of the council’s export performance index project, urged the government to support further penetration of the Chinese market in regions that Thai businesses have not accessed to date.
Pointing out that 90 per cent of Thai exports to China are for domestic consumption, he said that although China’s gross domestic product is expected to grow at a slower 7.7 per cent, according to the Asian Development Bank, the large population still presented an opportunity for Thai exports.
Moreover, tight liquidity in the Chinese financial market is merely a short-term phenomenon, he added.
Another market offering good prospects is Asean, which accounted for 25 per cent of the Kingdom’s exports last year, at $56.49 billion, said Paiboon Ponsuwanna, an adviser to the TNSC.
He cited border trade with the CLMV nations of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, as well as Malaysia, in particular, as these markets account for 8 per cent of all Thai exports.
In the first half, export volume to Asean came in at $29.78 billion, a year-on-year rise of 4.1 per cent.
The TNSC hopes to see an overall 8-per-cent expansion in exports to Asean this year, to $61.14 billion.
To stimulate export growth, Paiboon urged the government to accommodate cross-border processes from customs procedures through to logistics, and particularly road linkage with neighbouring countries.
For other main markets, exports to the United States in the first half contracted by 0.5 per cent, while shipments to Japan fell by 2 per cent. Exports to the European Union increased by 1 per cent during the period.
To achieve the targeted 3-per-cent growth rate for exports this year, each month in the second half would have to record an average volume of $20.4 billion, said Vallop Vitanakorn, TNSC vice chairman.
“Looking at the past performance, this figure cannot easily be achieved,” he said.
The government has to cooperate earnestly and sincerely with the private sector to revive exports which would, in turn, boost the Kingdom’s economy, he added.
