Withdraw amnesty bill for sake of business confidence and economy, top FTI official urges

He said that the government’s merely appearing to be retreating from its stance on backing the bill was not enough to reassure the business sector that the current political instability would end.

Even though the Senate might not approve the legal draft, there remains a time bomb as the House of Representatives could re-submit the draft to the Upper House 180 days after its initial rejection, he said. 

During such a period, both local and foreign business operators would have to wait anxiously for a clearer picture, which could prompt a suspension of investment, Tanit warned.

The country’s tourism has already been negatively affected by the political tension, after nine countries warned their citizens about travelling in Thailand. Similar warnings from other countries can also be expected, he said.

Exporters, meanwhile, could see a drop in purchasing orders over the remainder of the year, given that some buyers would lose confidence of Thailand’s ability to deliver on time, although there was unlikely to be much impact on orders already placed.

“What should be of concern is [the effect of unrest on] economic growth this year and next. This year’s growth is expected to come in at 3.7 per cent, but if there is any unrest, it may fall to 3.5 per cent. Next year’s growth is forecast at 4 per cent, but it could be lower than expected as foreign investors are waiting to see a clearer picture in regard to this amnesty bill. 

“If the House were to be dissolved, a new government would take at least three months to be formed. This could lead to a suspension of investment if there were no clear picture,” said the FTI vice president.

Meanwhile, on the rally front, the objectives of those protesting against the amnesty bill have been upgraded to ousting the government, while news reports said that those who support the legal draft would also gather in Bangkok, which could lead to confrontation and violence.

Another gathering took place in the Ratchaprasong area in the heart of Bangkok to announce its standpoint against the amnesty bill, said DC Consultants and Marketing Communications CEO Danai Chanchaochai.

Danai is a member of the anti-corruption network, which includes Assumption University and business leaders.

He said the rally would announce only its stance on the bill, and not on ways to resolve the country’s divisions, which was something the government should seek itself.

Danai said he personally felt the government should withdraw the amnesty bill, which while initially being intended as a reconciliation measure, would bring about further separation in society due to people’s lack of confidence in the main players.

“The audience, who are the people, censure this movie. The directors, producers, scriptwriters and lead characters do not perform well. People don’t believe them. They all come out against it, therefore,” Danai said.

Recent reports from business operators in the provinces, particularly in the Northeast, said some provincial governors had lobbied private-sector leaders to publish letters in support of the amnesty bill, while some expressed their strong opinion urging the government to amend the legal draft in a bid to lessen the country’s political conflicts.