Ministry expects return to export growth this year
IN SPITE of export contraction in the first five months of 2016, the Commerce Ministry is optimistic that shipments during the rest of the year will return to growth.
It also says British voters’ decision to pull out of the European Union should not have a big impact on Thai trade, at least in the short term.
The ministry yesterday reported that exports in May declined for the second consecutive month, by 4.4 per cent to a value of US$17.61 billion (Bt622 billion), resulting in a cumulative decline in the first five months of 1.9 per cent to $86.99 billion.
“The ministry will retain its 5-per-cent export-growth goal as a working target,” Somkiat Triratpan, inspector-general at the ministry and director of its Policies and Trade Strategies Bureau, said yesterday.
“Exports could rebound to positive growth at any time as oil prices recover and the economies in some markets stabilise, mainly in the United States and China.”
The ministry has calculated that if export value in the remaining months is $19 billion to $20 billion, the 5-per-cent growth target could still be achieved. But if export value is about $18 billion to $19 billion a month, the growth figure will be only 2.5 per cent.
The ministry is concerned that the UK electorate’s decision for a “Brexit” from the EU could affect Thailand’s trading eventually. In the short term, however, it is confident that Thai exports will not suffer much, as shipments to the UK account for only 1.8 per cent of the total, and those to the EU less than 10 per cent.
Somkiat said exports in the remaining months should get back to positive territory, as indicated by more imports of capital goods and raw materials for the manufacturing and other export sectors.
In May, import value grew 0.5 per cent year on year to $16.07 billion, the first expansion in 14 months. Thailand’s trade surplus for the month was $1.5 billion.
Import value in the first five months totalled $76.54 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.25 per cent and resulting in a trade surplus of $10.44 billion.
Imports of raw materials last month grew by 2.37 per cent.
Somkiat said some countries had started to import more after economic recoveries.
The ministry said last month’s exports increased after some recovery of the global economy and the strong expansion of shipments of industrial goods, particularly vehicles and air-conditioners. Exports of some agricultural products have also recovered, tapioca being an exception because of low demand in China.
Isara Vongkusolkit, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, is less optimistic than the Commerce Ministry on exports. He said the continuing uncertainty over global economic growth would result in flat Thai export growth this year or a slight decline.
