KResearch keeps Thailand’s 2026 growth forecast at 2% as US trade risks rise
KResearch has maintained Thailand’s 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2%, warning that weaker momentum and US trade measures could weigh on the economy.
- Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch) has maintained its 2026 economic growth forecast for Thailand at 2%.
- The forecast remains unchanged despite stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth because underlying economic momentum is weakening, with the expansion driven mainly by inventory accumulation.
- Rising uncertainty surrounding US trade policy is considered a principal risk for Thailand's economy in the second half of 2026.
- Specific US trade concerns that could impact Thailand's exports include potential measures against structural overcapacity and the transshipment of goods.
Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch) has maintained its forecast for Thailand’s economy to grow by 2% in 2026, despite second-quarter GDP expanding by a stronger-than-expected 1.9%.
The research house warned that the economy’s underlying momentum was weakening because much of the better-than-expected growth came from inventory accumulation, while several other economic drivers slowed.
Economic growth in the second half is also expected to lose momentum from the 2.4% expansion recorded during the first six months of the year.
KResearch said external risks and uncertainty surrounding US trade policy would require particularly close monitoring, including possible measures targeting structural overcapacity and the transshipment of goods. The economic impact could become more apparent in 2027.
Second-quarter GDP beats forecast but momentum weakens
Thailand’s GDP grew by 1.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 but contracted by 0.2% from the previous quarter.
Although the annual growth figure was higher than KResearch had expected, it was not sufficient to significantly change the organisation’s assessment of the wider economic outlook.
The composition of GDP indicated that economic momentum had begun to weaken, it said.
Most of the stronger-than-expected expansion was attributed to inventory accumulation, while contributions from other economic components slowed. Private investment nevertheless remained one of the principal drivers of the Thai economy.
Second-half growth expected to slow
KResearch maintained its full-year GDP forecast at 2%, reflecting expectations that growth momentum would weaken in the second half compared with the first half’s 2.4% expansion.
The economy could improve in the third quarter with support from fiscal measures intended to sustain economic activity and domestic spending.
However, growth is expected to slow again in the fourth quarter as momentum in consumption, private investment and exports weakens.
Thailand’s economy will therefore continue to face constraints from both domestic conditions and external factors, particularly uncertainty surrounding international trade policies and their effects on exports.
US trade policy becomes key second-half risk
KResearch assessed that the principal risks facing Thailand during the remainder of 2026 were likely to shift from the effects of the Middle East conflict towards external economic pressure and uncertainty over US trade policy.
Among the main issues to watch is a US investigation into structural overcapacity.
Thailand must also monitor US scrutiny of transshipment, in which goods originating in another country are routed through Thailand before being exported to the United States, potentially to avoid trade restrictions or tariffs.
Any additional US measures in these areas could affect Thailand’s manufacturing and export sectors.
Details of the measures and the outcome of trade negotiations between Thailand and the United States will therefore be important for the country’s exports, investment flows and supply chains.
Impact may become clearer in 2027
Although the precise details of future US trade measures remain uncertain, KResearch expects their effects on the Thai economy to emerge more clearly in 2027.
The stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP figure does not mean Thailand has entered a robust or sustainable economic recovery, it said.
Several sources of growth are continuing to lose momentum, while risks arising from global trade policies are becoming increasingly significant.
