Thai farm exports weaken as electronics power record September shipments

Thailand’s agricultural and agro-industrial exports fell 1.9% in the first nine months of 2026 as high production costs and intense global competition weighed on key products, even as booming electronics shipments pushed the country’s overall exports to record levels.

Exports in September reached a record US$38.44 billion, up 24% year on year and marking a 27th consecutive month of growth.

Imports, however, surged 50.4% to an all-time high of US$44.30 billion, leaving Thailand with a trade deficit of US$5.86 billion for the month.

For January to September, exports totalled US$304.59 billion, up 19.6%, while imports rose 37.8% to US$348.28 billion. The nine-month trade deficit consequently widened to US$43.69 billion.

Nuntapong Jiralertpong, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), said the acceleration in September exports was driven largely by electronics as Thailand benefited from its position in global technology supply chains.

The International Monetary Fund has identified Thailand as one of the world’s four largest net exporters of artificial-intelligence-related hardware, alongside South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

Imports surge alongside manufacturing demand

Nuntapong said the sharp rise in imports should not be viewed solely as evidence of stronger domestic consumption.

Raw materials and semi-finished goods accounted for 41.7% of imports, while capital goods represented another 33.5%.

Major imports included computers and equipment, electrical machinery, integrated circuits, machinery and components, much of which feeds into domestic manufacturing and subsequent exports.

Fuel accounted for 11.9% of imports, consumer goods 8.7%, vehicles 3.2%, and arms, military supplies and other items about 1%.

He said the import structure showed that a substantial portion of the increase was linked to investment and production rather than household demand alone.

Agricultural exports remain under pressure

Agricultural and agro-industrial exports rose 2.5% in September, extending growth for a second month.

Pure agricultural exports increased 8.1%, while agro-industrial goods fell 2.7%.

Products recording declines included wheat products and other prepared foods, sugar, animal and vegetable fats and oils, fresh, chilled and frozen fish, and coffee.

The longer-term picture remained weaker.

Agricultural and agro-industrial exports during the first nine months were valued at US$39.92 billion, down 1.9% year on year.

Among major products, canned tuna exports slipped 0.4% to US$3.91 billion, natural rubber fell 2.5% to US$3.71 billion and rice dropped 16.6% to US$2.96 billion.

Cassava-product exports declined 28.4% to US$1.70 billion, while sugar fell 21.8% to US$1.89 billion.

Electronics continue to drive industrial exports

Industrial exports increased 25.4% in September, extending their run of growth to 30 consecutive months.

Strong performers included computers and components, telephones and related equipment, and integrated circuits.

Industrial exports over the first nine months reached US$255.18 billion, up 23%.

Motor-vehicle exports were worth US$16.90 billion, down 0.9%, while vehicle parts and accessories rose 3.3% to US$12.97 billion.

Hard-disk-drive exports increased 18.9% to US$10.43 billion and integrated circuits gained 19% to US$10.06 billion. Air-conditioner exports rose 1.6% to US$5.94 billion.

US market grows more than 50%

Exports to Thailand’s main markets remained strong in September.

Shipments to the United States surged 50.1%, while exports to China increased 18.4%, Japan 19%, the European Union 35%, the five major ASEAN markets 27% and Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam collectively 16.6%.

Among secondary markets, exports to Australia rose 37.7%, Latin America 29.3%, Africa 5.2% and the United Kingdom 14.6%.

Exports to Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States fell 12.4%, South Asia declined 2.7% and the Middle East dropped 8.7%.

Full-year exports could grow 15–16%

TPSO expects export growth to remain positive during the final three months of the year and sees full-year expansion of 15–16% as achievable, above its previous central estimate.

To achieve 15% growth, Thailand would need exports worth US$86.68 billion during the fourth quarter, or an average of about US$28.89 billion a month.

Growth of 16% would require fourth-quarter exports of about US$90.08 billion, or US$30.03 billion a month.

If the electronics cycle remains exceptionally strong and investment in AI infrastructure continues to accelerate, TPSO sees a possibility of export growth reaching 19%, which would take annual shipments to about US$404.88 billion and set another record.

For 2027, however, export growth is provisionally forecast at only 2–4% because of the much higher comparison base, although global economic expansion and continuing investment in AI are expected to provide support.

European protests pose logistics risk

Nuntapong said Thailand was also monitoring protests and labour action in Europe, including France and Italy.

Although there had been no clear short-term effect on Thai exports, prolonged strikes or disruptions to production and transport could affect supply chains and eventually weaken demand for Thai goods.

The risks would increase if labour disputes persisted long enough to slow production, employment or consumer demand in major European markets.

Agricultural goods face tougher competition

Assoc Prof Aat Pisanwanich of Rangsit University’s Faculty of Economics said Thailand’s exports to the United States were likely to remain strong in the final quarter while uncertainty persisted over the pending Thailand-US Agreement on Reciprocal Trade.

Thailand and the United States remain in the final stages of those negotiations.

Aat said exporters had an incentive to accelerate shipments before future tariff conditions became clearer.

Technology and innovation-related industrial products, including communications equipment, smartphones, electronics and electrical appliances, were likely to remain important drivers of export growth.

Agricultural exports, however, faced a more difficult environment.

Aat said Thai farm products carry relatively high production costs and prices and face strong competition from other producers, particularly Vietnam, which exports many of the same commodities.

Rice exports, he noted, had already been weakening for seven to eight months.

Finding entirely new markets would also be difficult because global agricultural competition remained intense.

Shift towards processed and premium products

Aat said Thailand should move more agricultural production away from raw commodities and towards processed products with greater added value and clearer differentiation.

Premium markets including the United States, Europe and Japan place greater emphasis on quality and standards, while China, India, Africa and the Middle East represent important mid-tier markets.

He said parts of the Middle East could also develop into premium markets for Thai processed agricultural products.

Although Thailand already produces high-quality processed food and agricultural brands, he said overseas marketing and recognition remained weaknesses.

Greater attention was therefore needed on distribution channels, branding and international marketing strategies.

Aat expects exports to continue expanding during the final quarter, supported by two main factors: exporters bringing forward shipments because of uncertainty over US tariff policy, and higher overseas demand during the Christmas and New Year period.

However, stronger exports are also likely to be accompanied by rising imports as manufacturers bring in additional raw materials, machinery and goods to meet production and seasonal demand.

He regarded full-year export growth of about 15–17% as achievable, while describing 19% as a more demanding target dependent on US tariff developments, global demand and continued momentum in technology-related industrial exports.