Thai inflation rises to 3.90% in October as fuel costs jump
Fuel prices rose 29.18% and food costs increased in October, while Thailand kept its 2026 inflation forecast at 2.0%, within a range of 1.8–2.2%.
- Thailand's headline inflation rose to 3.90% in October, primarily driven by a 29.18% increase in fuel prices.
- The surge in fuel costs, linked to the Middle East energy crisis, contributed to a 10.93% year-on-year price increase in the vehicles, transport, and communications category.
- In addition to fuel, a 4.26% year-on-year increase in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices was another major factor driving the overall inflation rate.
- Despite the October spike, the Commerce Ministry maintained its full-year inflation forecast for 2026 at a midpoint of 2.0%.
Thailand’s annual headline inflation reached 3.90% in October 2026, driven by a 29.18% increase in fuel prices, while the Commerce Ministry maintained its full-year inflation forecast at 2.0%.
Nantapong Chiralerspong, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), reported that core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, stood at 1.58%. Average headline inflation for January–October was 1.77% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier.
Fuel and transport costs drive inflation
Higher fuel prices reflected continuing pressure from the Middle East energy crisis following attacks on Saudi Arabian oil-producing areas. Average Dubai crude prices reached their highest level in seven months.
Prices in the vehicles, transport and communications category rose 10.93% year on year. Increases covered fuel, school transport, interprovincial van services, air-conditioned buses, motorcycle taxis, minibuses and songthaews (shared pick-up taxis).
The broader non-food and beverage category recorded a 3.66% increase. Recreation, reading, education and religious activities rose 1.51%, with higher costs for domestic and overseas tours, travel to visit relatives and make merit, and pet food.
The tobacco and alcoholic beverages category increased 0.04%, with beer and wine among the items becoming more expensive.
Food prices rise despite easing flood disruption
Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased 4.26% year on year. Flooding in important vegetable-growing areas pushed up some fresh vegetable prices early in October, although prices gradually returned towards normal levels towards the end of the month.
Prepared food prices rose 4.06%, including ready-made dishes, noodles, rice with curry, rice served with holy basil stir-fries, and fried rice.
Fresh vegetables becoming more expensive included limes, holy basil, Chinese kale, aubergines, spring onions, yardlong beans and Chinese flowering cabbage.
Prices also increased for pork, fresh chicken, fresh and steamed mackerel, whiteleg shrimp and squid. Within the rice, flour and flour products group, white rice, glutinous rice and sandwich bread became more expensive.
Non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 1.94%, including purified drinking water, soft drinks, instant coffee, and hot and iced coffee. Other increases covered sweets, ice cream, brown sugar, fish sauce, shrimp paste, vegetable oil, monosodium glutamate, seasonings and soy sauce.
The eggs and dairy products category increased 6.90%, with higher prices for chicken and duck eggs, soya milk and fermented milk drinks.
Fresh fruit prices fell 0.15%, with declines recorded for longkong, mangoes, dragon fruit and Nam Wa bananas.
Electricity and household goods become cheaper
Electricity prices declined, alongside charges for contracted home repairs covering labour and materials. Household items becoming cheaper included bedsheets, blankets, bathroom and floor cleaners, towels, washing machines and air conditioners.
Personal care products also recorded price declines, including skin protection and skincare products, hair conditioner, perfume, soap, face powder, facial cleansers and toothpaste.
Clothing and footwear becoming cheaper included men’s and women’s shirts and trousers, men’s trainers and children’s T-shirts.
Full-year inflation forecast remains at 2.0%
The Commerce Ministry retained its forecast for average headline inflation in 2026 at 1.8–2.2%, with a midpoint of 2.0%.
Nantapong expects inflation to remain positive in November. Factors to monitor include elevated global energy prices, prepared food and transport costs, and weather conditions affecting some agricultural products.
Government energy measures, the Commerce Ministry’s price monitoring and easing floods are expected to help reduce price pressures and household living costs.
The latest international comparison, based on September figures, placed Thailand’s headline inflation of 2.82% as the 37th-lowest among 139 reporting economies.
Thailand also recorded the fifth-lowest rate among the 10 ASEAN economies included in the comparison, below Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, the Philippines and Laos.
