People aged 65 and over surpass young children in historic global shift
A US Census Bureau report says the global share of older people will almost double by 2060, increasing pressure on healthcare, public finances and family care.
- In 2025, the global population of people aged 65 and over surpassed the number of children under five for the first time in recorded history.
- This demographic shift is driven by two primary factors: declining fertility rates, which shrink younger generations, and lower death rates, which allow people to live longer.
- The gap is projected to widen significantly, with the 65-plus age group expected to grow from 10.5% of the world's population in 2025 to 19.6% by 2060.
- This aging trend is creating a "top-heavy" age structure that will increase pressure on public finances, healthcare systems, and family caregivers worldwide.
By 2025, the share of the world’s population aged 65 and over had overtaken that of children aged five and under, marking the first such crossover on record, according to the US Census Bureau.
Its August 2026 report, An Aging World: 2025, says the shift is occurring faster than expected a decade ago and is creating an unprecedented, increasingly “top-heavy” age structure.
The gap is forecast to widen.
Older people accounted for 10.5% of the global population in 2025 and are projected to make up 19.6% by 2060.
The world total passed 8 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow by more than 2 billion by 2060.
Around 1.148 billion of that increase, or more than half, will come from growth among those aged 65 and over.
The population aged 85 and over is forecast to quadruple between 2025 and 2060 in 160 countries, mostly in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean.
Meanwhile, 77 countries already have at least 14% of their populations aged 65 and over, a threshold typically associated with higher-income countries.
Japan had the world’s highest proportion of older people in 2025, at 29.7%.
South Korea is expected to lead by 2060, when the figure is projected to reach about 41%, while Japan is expected to fall to third place.
Europe is forecast to remain the oldest region, with its share projected to rise from 21% to 30.8%.
Africa will remain the youngest, but its older population will reach 249 million by 2060, exceeding Europe’s 214 million and showing that ageing will not be confined to wealthy or developed countries.
Two forces underpin the change.
Falling death rates, supported by better health services, education and economic development, allow people to live longer, while declining fertility shrinks younger generations.
When fertility remains below the “replacement” level of about 2.1 births per woman for a prolonged period, the pool of future parents eventually contracts, creating what the report calls a “fertility trap”.
Among the world’s most populous countries, Russia and Japan were the first to combine population decline with a rising proportion of older people.
Their population declines began in 1996 and 2008, respectively, although the global population is still expected to expand for several decades.
Longer lives will not necessarily be healthier.
Life expectancy is projected to increase faster than healthy life expectancy.
In the United States, 73% of people aged 65 and over had at least two chronic conditions between 2016 and 2019.
Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias were also among the five leading causes of death worldwide for people aged 60 and over in 2021.
Countries must therefore prepare for longer periods of chronic illness, disability and limitations on daily life.
Ageing will also increase pressure on public finances and families.
Over the next decade, government health expenditure in member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is projected to rise by an average equivalent to 2.6% of GDP, while government revenue is expected to increase by only 1.3% of GDP.
Long-term care remains heavily dependent on unpaid support from relatives and friends, and about three in five carers aged 50 and over in many OECD countries are women.
The burden also affects employment, income, family responsibilities and gender inequality.
Beyond its population projections, the report summarises available socioeconomic data and assesses how falling fertility and the COVID-19 pandemic affect older people’s economic circumstances, health and overall well-being.
It also reviews research on age-friendly communities, the effects of artificial intelligence on health systems and employment, and the consequences of humanitarian disasters.
Its forecasts extend to 2060, compared with 2050 in An Aging World: 2015.
The study is the sixth in the An Aging World series, which began in 1987.
It was written by Rachel Bacon, Daniel Goodkind, Paul Kowal, Anne Morse and Mitali Sen with support from the National Institute on Aging (NIA).
Its sources include the Census Bureau’s International Database, the international family of Health and Retirement surveys, Gateway to Global Aging, the World Bank, the International Labour Organization (ILO) and the OECD.
