Thailand warned to adapt to 'post-Ayutthaya' Myanmar

“Shall we cast off the old paradigm on Myanmar that we have stayed with since Ayutthaya?” asked Tanit Sorat, vice chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries and one of the panellists.

“It is not a poor country any more, and it is not our enemy any more, but Myanmar is a potential economic power.”

Myanmar is situated at a strategic point and interfaces with many regional logistics networks such as the South-South Corridor linking with India, the East-West Corridor linking with the rest of mainland Southeast Asia and the North-South Corridor linking with China, Tanit said.

“All roads now are leading to only one destination – Myanmar,” he added.

Myanmar is in the genuine and irreversible process of reform in terms of politics and economics, said Sunait Chutintaranond, director of the university’s Institute of Asian Studies.

The changes in the country are very dynamic, he said.

The Myanmar military knows it would have to pay a very high cost if it reversed the process towards reform. The cost would be absolutely higher than what the military paid after the 1988 suppression, the prominent historian added.

Myanmar will become a playground for all countries after it opens up and interacts with the outside world, said Pornpimol Trichot, a senior researcher at the institute.

Thailand lost its leading position in Myanmar when China began to dominate this neighbouring country in the 1990s, she said. China is now the top investor there while Thailand is No 2. China also has political, strategic and security interests in Myanmar.

The Thai government should facilitate the entry of Thai businesses to Myanmar through extensive knowledge, connections and back-up, she added.

Sutapa Amornvivat, chief economist at Siam Commercial Bank, said doing business in Myanmar called for accurate risk-return analysis, since the country remained a high risk because of its political instability. Conflicts with minorities are still far from over.

“One of our customers could not operate an investment project located in a state near the border of Myanmar and Thailand because of the political conflict between the Myanmar government and armed ethnic groups,” she said.

Academic Sunait said the ethnic-minority issue was one of the challenges Myanmar had to deal with. The reform movement would not be successful if it failed to allocate rights for natural-resource management to the minorities.

Many ethnic groups have fought for autonomy for decades. If Myanmar fails to deliver some authority and allocate resources to them, reconciliation will not happen, he said.

Another challenge for Myanmar is how to bridge the development gap between the rich and poor. Fast reform and development of the economy could put pressure on people who might not be able to catch up. The reform process should be able to balance all dimensions – economic stability, human security and environmental integrity, Sunait said.