Parties now at core of ideological battle
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Demonising opponents has replaced political debate; protests seen growing shorter, more violent
Polarisation has been and still is deeply ingrained in Thai society as conflicts and confrontation continue unabated. Every side wants to win over the others but no absolute victory is in sight. And this time the clash has shifted from one between ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra and the establishment to one between the two major political parties. Last week, red-shirt people surrounded the rally of Opposition Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva in Pathum Thani, raising fears that violence could strike the country again.
Many political scientists agree that the problem would persist unless the opposing sides agree to talk.
“Problems crop up as we see the current problems as a very big deal and cannot find a solution. And at the same time we expect all sides to agree with us. This is the problem of Thailand. Instead of talking to each other, we set up walls between each other. But we usually fail to trace back what the origin of the problems is,” said Anusorn Limmanee from Chulalongkorn University.
“At one point, when the problems go too far and become mass mobilisations, the root of the problems will not matter as much as the current problems,” he said.
Anusorn and his colleague Surachart Bamrungsuk agree that the real problems are political principles or paradigms.
Anusorn said real democracy would flourish if both majority rule and the examination mechanism work well. The administrators come at the majority’s choice; at the same time, there are proper checks and balances and controls on power to preserve the rights and freedoms of the people.
“What I never want to see is political parties jumping into the conflicts and intensifying the polarisation. That will make talks more difficult,” said Jaras Suwanmala, former dean of political science at Chulalongkorn.
The “black magic” that is bad for politics is manipulation with the idea that the opposite side is the enemy, refuses to talk and disseminates lies. Politicians should wean themselves from black magic. Otherwise, the conflicts will become worse.
Surachart – who said he sees the present as having the highest polarisation level and foresees more mass politics as people come out onto the street more – said the prolonged conflicts are actually a struggle between two paradigms – guided democracy and popular democracy. Unless we can agree on which way Thailand is going, the problems will not go away.
Red-shirt leaders claim the Democrat Party wants to see bloody clashes between the red shirts and the party’s supporters.
Thida Tavornsaet Tojirakarn, chairwoman of the red-shirt Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD), said the red shirts will do their best to try to avoid such a street confrontation, however.
“We will be especially careful,” she said.
The Democrats decided to mobilise people on the street out of desperation, she said.
“Our understanding is that they have no choice. We will have to be careful not to fall into their trap,” she said.
The Democrats are fighting to remain politically relevant and to keep the rule of the old political elite, or amataya, from crumbling, she said.
Thida warned the Democrat Party against resisting the globalisation of democracy and defended red-shirt street politics as different from the Democrats, as the red shirts were robbed by the coup in 2006.
Chavanond Intarakomalyasut, spokesman of the Democrat Party, denied his party is provoking the violence.
“What we are doing [by staging rallies] is telling people the truth, and [the rallies] are lawful. We don’t intend to stir up any violence. I think the government is doing the provoking,” he said.
Several polls show the public disagrees with amending the charter and issuing reconciliation bills to facilitate Thaksin, he said.
The Democrats did not copy the way Pheu Thai Party mobilises the masses, he added.
Piphob Thongchai, a core member of the yellow-shirt People’s Alliance for Democracy, said the political situation now is not normal, as political parties are trying to mobilise the masses to support them.
The Democrat Party saw a model for success in the Pheu Thai Party, which holds the majority in the House and cultivates the red shirts as their support, so the opposition party is trying to imitate it, he said.
“The current situation is not a normal exercise for freedom but it is a declaration of war between parties. They are fighting for their own interests, not for the sake of the country,” he said.
It would certainly lead to more chaos in the country, Piphob said.
The only way out for the country is to seek reform through neutral camps, not political parties, otherwise the conflicts would come back to haunt society again no matter who becomes the ruler of the country, he said.
However, some academics think political parties holding rallies is not the problem, and that it is good for institutions to educate people and provide them with information. The problem is, their provocation makes the opponent look like the enemy.
“It’s all right if they come out and educate people, give people information. The dangerous part is that they also tell supporters, ‘We can’t let them….’,” said Sukhum Nualsakul, a veteran political scientist and former rector of Ramkhamhaeng University.
Gothom Arya, director of Mahidol University’s Institute for Human Rights and Peace Studies, said he hopes the Democrat Party, as the country’s oldest, would know better and avoid a bloody confrontation.
The Democrats should not just talk to their own constituencies by staging rallies around the nation, but should also try to reach out to people who may not be their supporters or even disagree with the party, he said.
“The Democrat Party should explain its thinking,” he said.
Police are also concerned about the political violence. They recently reached the conclusion that political protests may erupt in the second half of the year since political and ideological conflicts linger. The National Police recently adjusted its strategy to deal with demonstrations.
Pol Maj-General Likhit Suthapinthu, commander of Border Patrol Police Region 4, who has overseen political protests since 2008, predicts that the political protests in 2012 would be shorter but more violent than in 2010, due to the strong and prolonged conflict.
He said the situation is different this year because of four factors: If the protest is prolonged, political parties will lose public support because most people have grown tired of long protests; all protest leaders have come to the forefront and no longer hide behind the crowd; mobilising the masses would be tight and fast; and an aggressive strategy would be used so the protest would be more violent than the demonstration at Ratchaprasong Intersection.
